Academy Awards: Predicting The 2015 Oscar Nominees In The Major Categories

By this time tomorrow (Thursday), we will have a fresh slate of actual Oscar nominees to discuss, celebrate, analyze, pick apart and – eventually – champion. But just listing this year’s crop of Academy Awards selection isn’t as much fun as sticking our necks out and guessing the films that might triumph at the end of Phase One of the Oscar marathon. That’s right, the real campaigns kick into a higher gear following the Oscar nominations, when official nominees finally start competing for the top prize – handed out on Oscar night.

So, which films and talents do I think will be announced on Thursday morning? Hopefully you have been tracking my weekly Awards Blend podcast, and you have a sense of where my head – and my heart – lie. But with time running out, I’m putting my chips on the table for the top six categories and saying these will be your Academy Award nominees for 2014. Be sure to tell me what you think I got wrong:

Ava DuVernay, Richard Linklater and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu feel like they are in, to me. DuVerney is, of course, tenuous – if only because she was left out of the DGA race, and her film has missed on a few major Guild awards. The remaining two are a mystery, with Clint Eastwood, Wes Anderson and Morten Tyldum still looking like great candidates (especially after the DGA nominees were revealed). So, who gets in?

Easily the toughest category in this year’s Oscar race. There will be at least 10 worthy Best Actor candidates who’ll be on the outside looking in on the morning of the Oscar announcements. Multiple actors roared out of the gates, and then they have been jockeying for position. When picking Frontrunners, I have four who I believe are mortal locks, and I‘ve believed that for some time (which is why I’m sticking with Steve Carell in Foxcatcher). That means there’s one possible slot open for so many possible contenders. Who’ll survive? Here’s what I think.

If the Best Actor is stacked, the Best Actress race has remained relatively thin. A few candidates are emerging, particularly Amy Adams, who got a Golden Globes boost for Big Eyes. Jennifer Aniston also received SAG and Golden Globes support for her role in the drama Cake, and now looks like she could disrupt the two-horse race between Moore and Reese Witherspoon.

As predicted, J.K. Simmons has been taking the trophies in the early, regional awards races. Hopefully his wins – as well as positive word-of-mouth – can continue to boost Whiplash at the indie box office. Right now, I’m waiting for someone to step up and challenge Simmons for the lead in this category. It hasn’t happened yet. And I deeply wish that Steve Carell had campaigned for Supporting Actor, because I think there’s a chance both he and Channing Tatum could go unrecognized for their exquisite work in Foxcatcher, and that would be disgraceful.

Much like the Best Picture race, I have one lock (in my mind) for the Supporting Actress race, and it’s tied to Boyhood. Patricia Arquette is the emotional anchor of Richard Linklater’s sprawling, 12-year journey, and her sentimental work should be enough to earn the actress her first Oscar nomination. She has collected multiple trophies throughout the course of this race. Write her name down with pen. Who will join her? This one is more of a toss-up than the other six categories, as multiple contenders have lingered. I’m going with: