Oscar Eye: Well, There Go Your Predictions

By Katey Rich: 2009-06-24 20:17:24

Yeah, I know you weren't ready to hear from me until the fall, but this is a special Breaking News Oscar Eye alert! Today the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced that there will be ten Best Picture nominees next year, essentially admitting that they're jealous of the Top Ten lists we critics crank out at the end of each year.

There's plenty of speculation about why they made this change, and it's probably all true-- they felt really bad when we all complained about The Dark Knight and Wall-E got snubbed next year, they want to increase the odds of nominating a movie someone has actually seen, they all cried at Up and wanted to guarantee it a nomination. But it's nearly impossible to figure what will happen from here, whether the 10 titles will blow the doors open for offbeat indies (Rachel Getting Married, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind) snubbed in the past, or even beloved popcorn movies ignored in recent years (Star Trek is looking mighty hungry right now).

As always, I have no idea what will actually happen. But here are my best guesses, and their corresponding odds, anyway.

10 great movies will be nominated. That was the optimistic promise Academy President Sid Ganis made when he announced the change, and I think even the most enthusiastic movie fan scoffed at that. Those of us cobbled together a top 10 list ruefully remember padding out the last few slots with movies that were just OK, even in a year like 2007, crammed with gems. The Academy is famous for leaving out the best in favor of the typical Oscar bait (hello, The Reader!), and this at least gives better odds that the good ones will make it in too. But anyone who thinks that widening the field will somehow elbow out middlebrow stuff like Frost/Nixon will be sorely disappointed next January. ODDS: 0%

Better indies will be nominated. And no, not Fox Searchlight powerhouses like Little Miss Sunshine-- they don't need any more help. But just as critic's groups will open their arms toward Wendy and Lucy or The Lives of Others, the Academy may find room to push forward a genuine indie, bolstered by either group support or a killer ad campaign. Publicity houses that previously might have worked for a Best Actress or Screenplay nod will have to start working double time to get that kind of attention, but it would be so, so gratifying to see it pay off. The Academy would bolster its reputation with film fanatics who see it as out of touch, and little movies that could would get a much-needed financial boost. ODDS: 40%

Better blockbusters will be nominated. There's something endearing about Oscar's ability to create blockbusters with a nomination-- Slumdog Millionaire made more than Wanted by the end of its run. But the Academy has strayed too far from a past in which it would give a Best Picture nod to E.T. or Four Weddings and a Funeral, and they've probably realized by now that the most beloved movies of all time don't often turn out to be their favorites. Do they have to give a nomination to Star Trek to prove they're serious? No, and they probably won't. But when a Dark Knight-esque phenomenon occurs again -- or hell, even something as good as the first Pirates of the Caribbean-- they may take the opportunity to take notice. And that'll make us all feel a bit better about Oscar's place in culture, no matter how much the purists will whine. ODDS: 80%

More Oscar-bait crap will get nominated. Guaranteed. And that's the most depressing part about all of this, that even more movies with weighty topics and December release dates and some kind of "powerhouse" performance will get the nomination they were created to earn. You know that Doubt would have been in last year had there been 10, just like The Bucket List, God help us, might have had a shot before. We might even wind up with more of these movies, given the higher chance of a nomination. Damn you, Sid Ganis-- you've ensured us an endless stream of more Holocaust movies. ODDS: 100%

The Oscars will be more fun to watch. I'm guessing there will still be a sense of an inevitably to the whole thing, as a frontrunner is a frontrunner no matter how many also-rans are there too. But there is an appealing, demolition derby kind of vibe to 10 nominees, and if there are even more really unlikely competitors up against each other-- like when voters had to choose between Juno and No Country for Old Men in 2007-- it'll be that much more fun to watch. The real challenge will be wrangling this many nominees without giving us a five-hour long ceremony. ODDS: 70%

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