While it’s essentially impossible to decide when the "summer movie season" starts anymore, as we’ve already seen several big action blockbusters premiere, the first weekend of May has been one of the default dates for the last several years. If this year is any indication, summer could be getting off to one it’s biggest starts ever, when Captain America: Civil War debuts May 6. According to tracking, the superhero epic could see a domestic gross upwards of $175 million during its debut frame.
To put that number in perspective, $175 million would be the fifth-highest grossing opening weekend ever according to The Hollywood Reporter, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Jurassic World and the two Avengers films. This would also put Captain America: Civil War ahead of the last big superhero movie, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice who saw an, impressive in itself, $166 million in its opening weekend. While DC’s superhero universe was relatively new, they were able to trade on the two biggest names in the comic book genre. Civil War, while not having heroes who are quite as popular, has been building their fan base over the last several years and the new film looks to be a major turning point in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, as it pits traditional allies against each other for the first time.
With three weeks until the release of Captain America: Civil War, it will be interesting to see where things go from here. In the weeks prior to release, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice saw its estimates get increased, and it was still able to exceed those opening numbers. Disney has been making 2016 the year of exceeding expectations. Zootopia was expected to hit $60 million in its debut but did over $70 million. The Jungle Book was looking at $70 million, but instead did over $100 million over this past weekend. Whatever the reason, movies have been regularly exceeding their expectations this year. If this trend continues, it could mean Civil War could be looking to do even more than the massive number we’re currently looking at.
At the end of the day, the only thing that really matters to the studio is whether a movie makes more money at the box office than it cost to produce. Having said that, the industry will be watching Captain America: Civil War very closely to see how its numbers compare to that of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. The fact that the films come from competing comic book sources, and both happen to include plot lines about heroes fighting each other, will have many wondering which one will "win." If these projections hold, it looks like Civil War may have a better opening weekend, although the larger question may be whether Captain America can hold the audience better than Dawn of Justice did.
Are you planning on checking out Captain America: Civil War on opening weekend? Let us know in the comments.
