Now that the Academy Award nominations have been announced, the real conversations can begin. Because prior to the nominations being read aloud on Thursday morning, all we had were educated guesses by “experts” who read tea leaves, and often get things wrong. Remember when the top prognosticators swore Denzel Washington was the frontrunner in his category for Gladiator 2? Well, he didn’t even get nominated. So let’s look over the actual nominees, and try to spot some trends that could lead to wins at the Academy Awards on March 2. Because from what I see, James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown got some real love in some important categories, which might indicate a momentum surge.
Right now, the three favorites for Best Picture at the Academy Awards appear to be Emilia Perez – which led all nominated films with 13 Oscar nods – The Brutalist (10 nominations) and Wicked (10 nominations). I was pleasantly surprised, however, to see A Complete Unknown following those movies by racking up eight nominations, including a few very important ones that I think bodes well for the movie’s Oscars chances.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but there doesn’t appear to be a movie in the field of Best Picture nominees that feels like the slam-dunk, sure-fire winner… a movie that’s beloved across the board the way that a picture like Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer was last year. From the moment that film earned all of its nominations, it steadily became the lead horse in the race, then took home four top trophies including Picture, Director, Actor and Supporting Actor.
I’m not sure I see the same movie doing that this year, as love seems to be divided amongst The Brutalist (for the cinephiles in the group) and Wicked (for the populists in the group). Arguments can – and will – be made for both movies, though I see the arguments AGAINST them as being a bit too strong. Wicked, for its part, is only the first half of a story that will conclude in November with the release of Wicked: For Good. There’s a good chance Academy voters will play the age-old game of, “I’ll just honor it then.” As for The Brutalist, the film’s lengthy run-time is working against it, with a narrative recently popping up that potential Oscar voters didn’t even finish the film. It comes with a built-in intermission, so yes, it’s a dedicated sit.
Let’s say that the voting bodies for these two movies split. What could rise up? There’s an argument to be made for Emilia Perez, Netflix’s divisive musical about a Mexican cartel leader (Karla Sofia Gascon, also nominated) who fakes their own death so they can leave their wife (Selena Gomez, not nominated) and get the sex change operation they have dreamed about for years. The fact that it earned so many nominations means there’s industry support for the movie. But can it survive the backlash that’s already bubbling up online for the next month and a half of campaigning?
Then there’s A Complete Unknown. The movie currently has an 80% on Rotten Tomatoes. It’s performing well at the box office since opening on Christmas Day, and should receive a bump following these nominations. It received Screenplay, Sound, and Costume Design nominations, as well as nods for three of its actors: Timothee Chalamet, Monica Barbaro, and Edward Norton (all well deserved). I wish it got an Editing nod. That’s usually a strong indicator that a movie will take Picture. But seeing James Mangold’s name in the Best Director category over potential nominees like Jon M. Chu (Wicked), Edward Berger (Conclave) and Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part 2) indicates to me that there’s more love for the Bob Dylan movie than expected, and it’s very much in the Best Picture race.
Of course, this is only the close of the latest phase of the Oscar campaigns, and now the nominees kick it into a higher gear. There’s plenty of time for a frontrunner to lose that momentum, or for an underdog to gain traction. Maybe Timothee Chalamet’s performance as host and musical guest on Saturday Night Live swings some attention to A Complete Unknown, earning it more votes? Maybe Academy members head back into their Brutalist screeners to finish the movie? Or perhaps they press play on Emilia Perez and discover what all the fuss is about. The games officially have begun. Place your bets, and see how it all shakes out.
