Like Thanksgiving last month, the weekend before Christmas is always a big showdown time for big studio blockbusters. The regular thinness of the release calendar in January allows for tentpole titles to grow long legs, so what may initially appear as a logjam can result in a whole lot of ticket sales. This year's big faceoff was between Jeff Fowler's Sonic The Hedgehog 3 and Barry Jenkins' Mufasa: The Lion King, and round one of the box office battle has gone to the former.
The video game franchise has another big hit, while the Disney prequel didn't get off to the fastest start. You can check out the results of the Top 10 below and join me after for analysis.
| TITLE | WEEKEND GROSS | DOMESTIC GROSS | LW | THTRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Sonic The Hedgehog 3* | $62,000,000 | $62,000,000 | N/A | 3,761 |
| 2. Mufasa: The Lion King* | $35,000,000 | $35,000,000 | N/A | 4,100 |
| 3. Wicked | $13,500,000 | $383,916,000 | 2 | 3,296 |
| 4. Moana 2 | $13,100,000 | $359,068,328 | 1 | 3,600 |
| 5. Homestead* | $6,066,710 | $6,066,710 | N/A | 1,886 |
| 6. Gladiator II | $4,450,000 | $153,938,000 | 4 | 2,397 |
| 7. Kraven The Hunter | $3,100,000 | $17,435,000 | 3 | 3,211 |
| 8. The Lord Of The Rings: The War Of The Rohirrim | $1,270,000 | $7,370,000 | 5 | 2,602 |
| 9. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever | $825,000 | $38,454,951 | 9 | 861 |
| 10. Queer | $364,240 | $2,837,173 | 10 | 379 |
Sonic The Hedgehog 3 Has The Tenth Biggest Opening Weekend Of 2024, But It's A Middle-Of-The-Pack Start Franchise-wise
Arguably fittingly, the Sonic The Hedgehog franchise isn't showing any signs of slowing down. Sonic The Hedgehog 3 may be a second sequel, but it has never been sold as the final chapter of a trilogy – and that was further emphasized at the end of last week when it was announced that Sonic The Hedgehog 4 is now on the way. This means that the latest chapter didn't get the box office bump that a lot of movies with "3" in the title get – but the feature is still on its way to being another hit for the series.
According to early results reported by The Numbers, Sonic The Hedgehog 3 had no problem sprinting away from the box office competition this past weekend and made an estimated $62 million in its debut. That's good enough to be called the tenth best domestic opening of 2024, as it didn't make quite as much as Chris Renaud's Despicable Me 4 (which earned $75 million when it arrived in early July), but is slightly more than Wes Ball's Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes (which brought in $58.4 million during a relatively slow May).
Sonic The Hedgehog 3 stands apart from its predecessors in that it had a bigger budget ($122 million, per Variety), and it's the first to get a tentpole December release (the previous movies come out in February and April, respectively), but those big moves by Paramount Pictures didn't quite pay off with a splash start for the video game movie sequel. The new release only did slightly better in its opening weekend than the original (which made $58 million), and ticket sales are actually down about $10 million from Sonic The Hedgehog 2.
As noted above, there is a lot of runway for the film to become a big hit in the coming weeks, but it's not the splashiest start for a title that has gotten a strong response from critics and returned an "A" grade from CinemaScore surveys.
Based on history, there is a very high ceiling of success for the movie. By the end of its theatrical run around the globe, Sonic The Hedgehog 2 made $405.2 million, which was enough for it to be the twelfth highest earning release in 2022. Given its prime release date positioning, Jeff Fowler's new feature certainly has a chance to put up those kinds of numbers; James Wan's Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom only made $27.7 million in its first three days at this time last year, and it finished its time in cinemas making $433.8 million.
Mufasa: The Lion King Doesn't Get Off To A Sprinting Start, But Time Will Probably Be Its Friend
Reflecting on 2023, Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom wasn't the only big late December movie in theaters: when the DC movie premiered, it pushed Paul King's Wonka out of the first place spot in the domestic Top 10 after it made just $39 million in its opening weekend. But while audiences temporarily chose the superhero movie over the candy-coated musical, time demonstrated that both films could simultaneously be successful. Wonka ultimately made $625.8 globally.
Remembering this is a good way to maintain optimism after the relatively slow box office start for Mufasa: The Lion King and not count it out.
With a Variety-reported budget over $200 million, the animated prequel made $35 million in its first three days – making it not particularly tough competition for Sonic The Hedgehog 3. Of course, what makes the numbers look really bad are the ridiculous results that Jon Favreau's The Lion King got when it came out in the summer of 2019 (which we have to remember was a wholly different box office landscape). When it debuted, the remake brought in a stunning $191.8 million in three days, and the film went on to make $1.7 billion worldwide. Mufasa: The Lion King was never going to do that kind of business... but it's not a great look that the movie made less than 20 percent of what Favreau's feature earned in its opening weekend.
As far as buzz is concerned, critics haven't been as high on Mufasa: The Lion King as Sonic 3, and CinemaScore surveys returned a half-step lower grade (an "A-"), but there are indications that audiences are liking what they see, and positive word of mouth could result in the film maintaining a strong position in the Top 10 through January 2025. While families may have gone to see the video game movie this weekend, they may switch things up and go see the Disney prequel next weekend (not much demographic crossover with the new releases arriving on Christmas: Robert Eggers' Nosferatu and James Mangold's A Complete Unknown).
Between the fresh titles arriving in cinemas in wide release and the popular titles that are playing right now, we may end up seeing a big shakeup in the Top 10 for the final weekend of 2024 – and I'll be back here next Sunday to report on how everything plays out. Head back here to CinemaBlend then to see the results, and in the meantime, you can get a jump on planning your cinematic adventures in the coming year with our 2025 Movie Release Calendar.
