When the WGA strike finally came to an end there were hopes that the agreement between producers and one union might also mean a break in the second strike, with SAG-AFTRA. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. There is still no end in sight and things are starting to get difficult in the industry with some movie release dates getting pushed back, and we could see a gap in major releases if things continue much longer.
Theatrical distribution has been doing okay for the most part, as it still has movies to release. But if all the movies that have stopped, or not started production because of the strike continue to be delayed, they could be in trouble. IMAX CEO Richard Gelfond feels that the strike may be close to a resolution, but he admits that because "there is so much emotion involved" it can be difficult to predict how people will act. He's already looking forward to what 2024 looks like for IMAX and he has a specific date in mind when things will go from bad to worse. He tells Deadline he hopes the strike will resolve by Thanksgiving, otherwise, he will start to have problems. He explained…
In terms of how it affects 2024…it depends when it settles. If it doesn’t settle until six months from now, yes, we are going to have an issue in 2024 because a lot of the films that are on our slate for the second half of 2024 haven’t finished filming. If it settles in the next couple of months, by Thanksgiving, I will feel a lot better.
Gelfond does point out that IMAX is actually in a lot better shape than most theatrical distribution because IMAX only needs one major movie release at a time. So even if there’s only a trickle coming from Hollywood, his situation will be okay. The issue is much more dire for the nation’s multiplexes, which have many screens they need to fill, so only having a small number of movies won’t get it done.
We’ve already seen some major movies, that are ready for release, like Dune: Part Two, get delayed because the studio felt they would fail without proper marketing, which needs the actors to be out there doing interviews and otherwise promoting the film. We’ve also had one major movie, Mission Impossible 8, push its 2024 release date into 2025. There have also been reports that Deadpool 3 will be delayed, though Marvel Studios has yet to make that official. If that does happen, we can expect a lot of dominoes to fall at Disney.
The unions and the studios have continued to meet, which is certainly a good sign, as it means an eventual deal is possible. But as Gelfond says, emotions here are strong, and so anything is possible.
