Predicting Whether Or Not These 2023 Golden Globe Winners Will Win The Oscar

Whether you agreed or disagreed with the choices at the 2023 Golden Globes, you have to wonder if the Academy will vote the same way at the Oscars this March. While we're still waiting for the nominations to be announced for the 95th Academy Awards, it won't be surprising to see many of these names and films among the nominees. 

From crowd favorites like Everything Everywhere All At Once to highly anticipated sequels like Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, there are a lot of interesting nominees this year. Let’s look through some of the winner’s from the 2023 Golden Globe ceremony and see if any of them have a shot at winning at the 2023 Academy Awards -- assuming we see them on the list of nominations!

The Fabelmans (Won Best Picture - Drama At The Golden Globes) 

I'm thinking that Steven Spielberg and his film will probably come out on top again at the Academy Awards -- both in Best Picture and Best Director. It won’t be the funnest of movies to cheer for, but I won’t argue with those who say that The Fabelmans is the movie of the year.

I’d be very excited if Everything Everywhere All At Once were to win, but it’s hard to compete against one of the greatest directors of all time.

The Banshees of Inisherin (Won Best Picture - Musical Or Comedy At The Golden Globes) 

The way the Golden Globes split up movie categories is tricky—not all movies fall squarely into the category of “Drama” or “Musical/Comedy.” For that reason, I don’t think this winner of the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy is likely to beat some of the heavier, more dramatic movies that are likely to be nominated alongside it at the Academy Awards.

I adore the chemistry between Brendan Gleeson and Colin Farrell. But as much as I hate to say it, I think the film is unlikely to win against the powerhouse that is Spielberg's The Fabelmans. So while The Banshees of Inisherin is definitely one of the best films of the year, its chances of winning are low.

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Won The Golden Globe For Best Picture - Animated) 

Will Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio win Best Animated Feature at the Academy Awards? I don’t think so. I’ll be the first to admit that Guillermo del Toro’s work is magical—I binged Cabinet of Curiosities in two days and cried like a baby while watching The Shape of Water—but I don’t think a remake of an animated classic will realistically win an Oscar. And if it does, I’ll have lost all hope for the future of original storytelling.

Personally, I’m rooting for Marcel the Shell with Shoes On in this category. Yes, I KNOW that it’s technically a “reboot” of a YouTube series, but I don’t care. I’d also be happy to see a win for Turning Red, which I loved.

Austin Butler (Won Best Actor - Motion Picture Drama)

I’m thinking it’s pretty unlikely that Austin Butler will take the crown at the Oscars—although I can’t quite forget how much the Academy loved Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody. Musician biopics are the truest of Oscar bait these days, in my opinion.

However, I think it’s more likely that Brendan Fraser will take home the Academy Award for Best Actor. His return to the big screen was universally applauded, and he was nominated despite the fact that The Whale 's reviews from critics were mixed. 

Cate Blanchett (Won The Golden Globe For Best Actress - Motion Picture Drama)

Cate Blanchett is amazing in every single movie I’ve ever seen her in, so while I haven’t seen Tár I have no doubt that her performance in the movie was Oscar-worthy. She’s that kind of actress. She can star in a movie that no one saw—Tár  bombed at the box office—and still undeniably have given a performance worth voting for.

Colin Farrell (Won The Golden Globe For Best Actor - Motion Picture Comedy Or Musical) 

Like I mentioned above, I thought Colin Farrell’s acting, especially across Brendan Gleeson, was delightful and genuine. I think even despite the fact that best actor/actress nominees at the Oscars will be pared down from the drama/musical comedy nominees at the Globes, Farrell has a genuine chance of winning again. However, there’s likely to be heavy competition in this category, with Elvis star Austin Butler having already won at the Globes and strong performances from Ralph Fiennes in The Menu and Brendan Fraser in The Whale.

Michelle Yeoh (Won The Golden Globe For Best Actress - Motion Picture Comedy Or Musical)

Wholeheartedly, I think Michelle Yeoh deserves to win the Oscar for her performance in Everything Everywhere All At Once. She was literally named Time Magazine’s 2022 Icon of the Year, thanks in part to her performance in the film—which makes me wonder how she hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar before. In her interview with Time, Yeoh explained how Asian actors aren’t usually given starring roles, saying:

It’s definitely time for Michelle Yeoh to receive her flowers at the Oscars ceremony. 

Ke Huy Quan (Won The Golden Globe For Best Supporting Actor - Motion Picture)

I could definitely see Ke Huy Quan winning for Best Supporting Actor at the Oscars. For one, the Golden Globes don’t split up supporting actor/actress categories by film genre, so the list we saw at the January 2023 ceremony is probably very close to the one we’ll see at the Oscars in March. 

More importantly, AAPI actors have finally been getting some of the recognition they deserve in the past several awards show cycles, so I'm hoping that will continue with the Academy's treatment of the Everything Everywhere All At Once cast.

Angela Bassett (Won The Golden Globe For Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture)

I’m a big fan of Angela Bassett, but we all know how the Oscars feel about action and superhero movies. Granted, Marvel movies have been getting a little bit more love at awards shows in the past few years—Black Panther was nominated for Best Film in 2019 and Avengers: Endgame earned nods for visual effects in 2020—but I’m not sure if Bassett’s win at the Globes will stand up against the performances of some of the other heavy hitters in the supporting actress category. However, if Bassett does pull off a win, it won’t feel undeserved.

The 2023 Academy Awards will premiere on ABC on Sunday, March 12. To prepare for the ceremony, check out our feature on the odds of Top Gun: Maverick winning big at the Oscars.