Awards season is in full swing. Oscar nominations arrive on Thursday, Jan. 16. The Critics Choice Movie Awards announce their winners that evening. And on Sunday night, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association hands out its annual trophies at the Golden Globes.
We expect to see a lot of bleed-over between Globes nominees and Oscar nominees by the time the Academy reveals its contenders this year. Winners at the Globes have no real effect on Oscar. For one thing, the Globes are selected by the 90-some-odd members of the eclectic HFPA, and not the Academy. Plus, Oscar ballots were due in before the Globes are announced, so winning a Globe can’t really help someone's Oscar campaign.
But it’s still fun to handicap the Globes races, and this year has some particularly tight categories. (See their nominees here.) We’ll be popping popcorn and tracking these battles from the comforts of our sofa… and live-blogging the whole affair here on CinemaBlend (so be sure to come back Sunday night and join us). Who will be making their speeches Sunday evening? Let’s analyze these five too-tough-to-call categories.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Outside of Idris Elba, who has gained very little traction in the actual Oscar race, these are the four names I expect to see on Oscar’s ballots come Thursday: Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Robert Redford, All Is Lost; Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club; and Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave. Any of those four could win on Sunday, and I wouldn’t be shocked. I have been saying all along that McConaughey was the frontrunner in a stacked Actor category for his outstanding turn in Club. But Ejiofor, Hanks and Redford might be delivering career-best performances. Imagine how much more difficult this category would be if Elba had been replaced by Leonardo DiCaprio or Joaquin Phoenix (both of whom are in the Musical or Comedy category).
Our Guess: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
The Drama category seems to be tipping toward the brilliant Cate Blanchett, seeing as how the HFPA moved Meryl Streep to this category for August: Osage County. Now the great Streep will have to contend with Amy Adams (American Hustle), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said). All of the actresses in this formidable category gave awards-worthy performances, but when voters see Streep’s name on a ballot, they tend to put a check next to it.
Our Guess: Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Best Director, Motion Picture
The Globes cheat and break Best Picture into two categories. They don’t do the same for Director, meaning 10 films have to be whittled down to five filmmakers, and the men in this year’s category are exquisite. This group is so strong, Martin Scorsese was left on the outside looking as (as was Spike Jonze, who I’d argue deserves a slot). The HFPA will have to choose between Alfonso Cuaron, Paul Greengrass, Steve McQueen, Alexander Payne and David O. Russell. If you scan these films, movies like Nebraska, 12 Years and American Hustle are very American, and might not appeal to an HFPA voter. I think they go universal. I think they go celestial. I think they go with Gravity.
Our Guess: Alfonso Cuaron
Best Foreign Language Film
At times, an afterthought category, as it can be populated with movies casual audiences didn’t see. But movies like Blue Is the Warmest Color, The Past and The Hunt captivated crowds outside of (or beyond) the film festival circuit, and I think this will be a good opportunity for the HFPA to give a strong foreign drama a boost heading into Phase Two of the Oscar campaigns. I thought Blue was extraordinary, but director Asghar Farhadi is a Globes darling thanks to A Separation (which won in 2012). Maybe the HFPA gives it to animator Hayao Miyazaki, who has announced that the nominated film The Wind Rises will be his last picture, but at the moment, my gut – in this very tight race – is leaning towards…
Our Guess: Blue Is the Warmest Color
Best Motion Picture, Drama
At the moment, the Oscar race seems to boil down between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, but SO MANY movies are ready to play spoiler, from American Hustle or Captain Phillips to The Wolf of Wall Street. A win by eiter Cuaron or McQueen’s films solidify its standing as a frontrunner (at least, in the awards ads that will be purchased following a Globes win). But a win by another movie – either Captain Phillips, Philomena or Rush -- will disrupt momentum and introduce doubt… the mortal enemy of a rabid awards publicist. I’m anxious to see who triumphs on Sunday to see if we really have a "race" to talk about for the next few weeks – or to see if one presumed frontrunner has this season in the bag.
Our Guess: Gravity
