Will it be a happy new year for certain films? Or will the momentum they enjoyed in 2014 fizzle now that we are in a different calendar year? These are the questions we are trying to answer as we head toward the all-important Nominations Morning, scheduled for Thursday, January 15. Which films and talent remain on the bubble, hoping to get a shot? We discuss in this week’s Awards Blend.
This likely is one of the last weekends where films still hoping to make an impact can get in front of the right eyeballs. Movies like The Imitation Game, Birdman and Boyhood have stated their cases. Others sit on the bubble, still hoping for a string enough push to keep them in the race. For a film like Selma, it might mean getting enough voters into theaters. For a movie like Two Days, One Night, it means getting a screener copy into the right hands.
Now, on to the charts. As of Friday, January 2, here’s where I think our major contenders stand:
| BEST PICTURE |
The FrontrunnersBoyhoodBirdmanSelma
The ContendersAmerican SniperFoxcatcherGone GirlThe Grand Budapest HotelThe Imitation GameThe Theory of EverythingUnbroken
The Dark HorsesA Most Violent YearNightcrawlerWhiplashWild
The LongshotsInherent ViceInterstellarInto the WoodsStill Alice
Ava DuVernay, Richard Linklater and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu feel like they are in, to me. The remaining two are a mystery, with Clint Eastwood, Wes Anderson, Morten Tyldum and Angelina Jolie still looking like great candidates the more we hear about how much the Academy loves their films. It might be time to give up on David Fincher, even if Gone Girl gets into the Best Picture race (where it belongs):
| BEST DIRECTOR |
The FrontrunnersAva DuVernay, SelmaAlejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, BirdmanRichard Linklater, Boyhood
The ContendersWes Anderson, The Grand Budapest HotelClint Eastwood, American SniperDavid Fincher, Gone GirlAngelina Jolie, UnbrokenJames Marsh, The Theory of EverythingBennett Miller, FoxcatcherMorten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
The Dark HorsesPaul Thomas Anderson, Inherent ViceJ.C. Chandor, A Most Violent YearDamien Chazelle, Whiplash
The LongshotsRob Marshall, Into the WoodsJean-Marc Vallee, Wild
Easily the toughest category in this year’s Oscar race. There will be at least five worthy Best Actor candidates who’ll be on the outside looking in on the morning of the Oscar announcements. When picking Frontrunners, I have four who I believe are mortal locks. That means there’s one possible slot open for nearly 20 possible contenders. Who’ll survive the lengthy Opening Stage of the awards campaign?
| BEST ACTOR |
The FrontrunnersSteve Carell, FoxcatcherBenedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation GameEddie Redmayne, The Theory of EverythingMichael Keaton, Birdman
The ContendersBen Affleck, Gone GirlBradley Cooper, American SniperRalph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest HotelJake Gyllenhaal, NightcrawlerOscar Isaac, A Most Violent YearDavid Oyelowo, Selma
The Dark HorsesEllar Coltrane, BoyhoodBill Murray, St. VincentJack O’Connell, UnbrokenJoaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
The LongshotsChadwick Boseman, Get On UpTimothy Spall, Mr. TurnerChanning Tatum, FoxcatcherMark Wahlberg, The GamblerChristoph Waltz, Big Eyes
If the Best Actor is stacked, the Best Actress race is thin. A few candidates are emerging, particularly Julianne Moore in the buzzworthy Still Alice. Jennifer Aniston also received SAG and Golden Globes support for her role in the drama Cake, and now looks like she could disrupt the two-horse race between Moore and Reese Witherspoon.
| BEST ACTRESS |
The FrontrunnersJulianne Moore, Still AliceReese Witherspoon, Wild
The ContendersJennifer Aniston, CakeFelicity Jones, The Theory of EverythingRosamund Pike, Gone Girl
The Dark HorsesEmily Blunt, Into the WoodsMarion Cotillard, One Day, Two Nights
The LongshotsAmy Adams, Big EyesHilary Swank, The HomesmanShailene Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars
As predicted, J.K. Simmons is taking the trophies in the early, regional awards races. Hopefully his wins – as well as positive word-of-mouth – can continue to boost Whiplash at the indie box office on fire. Right now, I’m waiting for someone to step up and challenge Simmons for the lead in this category. It hasn’t happened yet.
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR |
The FrontrunnersJK Simmons, WhiplashEdward Norton, Birdman
The ContendersRobert Duvall, The JudgeEthan Hawke, BoyhoodMark Ruffalo, FoxcatcherTom Wilkinson, Selma
The Dark HorsesJosh Brolin, Inherenet Vice
The LongshotsJohn Goodman, The GamblerTyler Perry, Gone Girl
Much like the Best Picture race, I have one lock (in my mind) for the Supporting Actress race, and it’s tied to Boyhood. Patricia Arquette is the emotional anchor of Richard Linklater’s sprawling, 12-year journey, and her sentimental work should be enough to earn the actress her first Oscar nomination. Who will join her?
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
The FrontrunnersPatricia Arquette, BoyhoodKeira Knightley, The Imitation Game
The ContendersJessica Chastain, A Most Violent YearEmma Stone, BirdmanMeryl Streep, Into the WoodsNaomi Watts, Birdman
The Dark HorsesLaura Dern, WildKatherine Waterston, Inherent Vice
The LongshotsCarrie Coon, Gone GirlMelissa McCarthy, St. VincentTilda Swinton, Snowpiercer
