Awards Blend: What The Hollywood Film Awards Can Tell Us About The Oscar Race

Nothing. The answer to the headline, if we are being blunt, is that Sunday night’s Hollywood Film Awards – which took place at the Beverly Hilton Hotel – can’t really tell us anything about the Oscar race (and I’ll explain why in a second). But some who are building a campaign during these early stages can create a silver lining from this unusual awards show, and I’ll try and fill in why that’s the case.  

The Hollywood Film Awards bill themselves as "The Official Launch of the Awards Season," and that’s sort of accurate. Several films, and their respective talents, that will find themselves in contention for an Oscar attended Sunday’s awards show (which wasn’t telecast, even though the ceremony aired on CBS the previous year). It’s a good opportunity to practice an acceptance speech, and it gives an awards hopeful a little bit of momentum that can be built on, with the right PR campaign.

But the Hollywood Film Awards have often been the butt of harsh jokes and stinging criticism, as the selection process behind the handing out of the annual awards remains a mystery to those outside of the Advisory Team that pre-selects the winners. And the HFAs don’t shy away from the controversy, this year – as they have in years past – choosing to honor films and performances that no one else has seen. Quentin Tarantino’s The Hateful Eight, for example, took home the Hollywood Ensemble Award. Does that mean the movie is finished? Is it actually awards worthy? Same goes for Will Smith taking home the Hollywood Actor Award for Concussion. Did Sony show the finished movie to the Advisory Team? Does this "victory" mean that Smith’s a legit contender in the Best Actor race… or did he agree to attend the ceremony, thereby locking up his Hollywood Film Awards win?

History suggests it’s the latter. Even Tarantino had to crack a joke at his own expense when he accepted the Hollywood Screenplay Award for Django Unchained in 2012, even though the movie wasn’t finished. He said from the stage:

That’s right. Because in Hollywood, every award win – even the dubious ones – buys you a little bit of power. With that in mind, here’s where I think the Oscar contenders sit on November 2:

Not much changed here. Steve Jobs still struggled at the box office, but no new films made up any ground. AFI Film Fest, which launches on Nov. 5, will bring clarity for movies like The Big Short and By The Sea. Until then…

Last season, Best Actor was a ridiculously competitive category, with just as many worthy candidates left on the outside of the category looking in as there was five eventual nominees. This year looks equally impressive, though there are a number of films yet to drop. Is this the year that Leonardo DiCaprio finally wins? Or could Matt Damon’s The Martian performance prove to be the spoiler?

There have been a few interesting developments in the Best Actress race, which we’ll continue to track. Cate Blanchett may end up competing against herself (we call that "Pulling a Soderbergh") if her performances in Carol and Truth continue to get recognition. And buzz has reached a deafening level for Brie Larson in Room, allowing me to move her into the Frontrunner category. (We gave the movie a perfect 5-star grade.) As for the rest of the category? Take a look.

More audience members will start to see Spotlight in the coming weeks, as Tom McCarthy’s gripping and airtight journalism drama opens in an increased number of theaters. Hopefully, from there, you all can help me figure out which of the male performers gives the better performance. I was blown away by the quiet fortitude Liev Schreiber brings to his role as the Boston Globe’s new publisher. But he’s equaled by Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Stanley Tucci, John Slattery… really, everyone is awesome. So, who makes the cut? We’ll see, in the next few weeks.

Alicia Vikander long has been the frontrunner in this category, not just for her soul-baring work in The Danish Girl (which should earn her an Oscar win, not just a nomination), but in recognition of the exquisite year she had as a performer. I also finally caught Youth last week, though, and I understand why many believe Jane Fonda’s scant bit of screentime will earn her a nod. It’s a showy, vitriolic turn that drips with the resentment of an older actress – and a Hollywodo legend – leveling bitter (but accurate) criticisms at her industry. Biting the hand that has fed her for years? What better way to get Oscar’s attention? I bet it works in her favor come nomination morning.