Last week Awake was the only newcomer in what turned out to be a very strange weekend for Hollywood. Where there's usually a plethora of new projects all marketing the heck out of themselves to try and get your box office dollar, there was only one movie making modest attempts to win over what proved to be an apathetic crowd. This weekend there is, yet again, only one new contender, but unlike Awake, this one has all but clinched the top spot.
The Golden Compass has all the glitter and glow of a major children's-fantasy-novel-turned-movie-adaptation and it's been plastered all over the internet, television and theaters for weeks now. Even if it were being released in a sea of competition it would still come out on top. But don't expect quite the kind of success that The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe had.
Before you even start cheering or yelling at your screen, let me explain. There's been a lot of comparison between the two films, mainly along the lines of religious discussion. Nevermind that. In fact, anyone who blames the religious debates for the movie losing any serious money is joking with themselves. If you have a kid old enough to understand complex issues and they want to see it, take them. There's a solid chance you'll have a lot to talk about on the way home, no matter if you find the story to be insightful or ignorant. But don't take the younger kids. With all the time the movie spends yammering on about pseudo-politics and imaginary metaphysics, the young ones will be just plain bored.
No, it's not because of religion that Compass won't do as well as Narnia, It's because it just doesn't have the history.
Audiences have been reading C. S. Lewis' "Narnia" books for decades now. People from age five to ninety-five have heard of them and read them. They're considered classic modern literature, which I've always thought was a bit of an oxymoron. The series has had a long time to build a strong following of fans. Pullman's "His Dark Materials" have little more than ten years on shelves. The massive fan base just isn't there. A closer comparison for His Dark Materials would probably be Lemony Snicket's A Series Of Unfortunate Events. Both are based on books that are relatively new and both have a generous helping of major Hollywood names in the credits.
Lemony opened at $30 million while The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe opened to the tune of $65 million. Expect The Golden Compass to fall somewhere in the middle.
As I hinted at before, there's another reason why Compass might not do as well. As a movie watching experience goes, Compass isn't as solid as the Narnia flick. The storytelling is choppy and the main actress is completely overshadowed by her co-stars, human and CG alike. Many turned out for multiple viewings of Aslan and company. Lyra and her crew just aren't as exciting in their cinematic incarnation.
