January 18th is a day long heralded by all those mysterious Cloverfield previews and finally that day is approaching. A lot of the buzz surrounding the film has worn off in the wake of luke warm critical reviews and the revelation that, despite all the secrecy, there really isn't anything terribly ground breaking to be excited about. But, don't let that fool you for a second. The movie is going straight to number one this weekend and is guaranteed to pull in the biggest opening of year so far.
Of course, that's kind of like guaranteeing that Britney Spears will be in the news this weekend too. Keep in mind that the largest opening of 2008 has been First Sunday which ended up only earning $17 million. I expect Cloverfield to score somewhere in the range of $30 to $40 million, but that's only because regular movie-goers are getting desperate for anything with a little action in it, even if it's the misguided blending of Blair-Witch and Godzilla.
For those who are less interested in mediocre thrills and are instead craving some romantic comedy love, the first rom-com of the year will also make an appearance. 27 Dresses may be gooey schmaltz, but with eye candy like James Marsden and Katherine Heigl, expect the movie to go straight to the number two spot.
The other new release, Mad Money, marks the second crime comedy of the year. Last week's First Sunday, also a crime comedy, baffled the world by creeping into second place, but don't expect Mad Money to do as well. Sure, it may star Queen Latifah, but it also headlines one Diane Keaton. In the last ten years Keaton has only had one movie break $15 million on opening weekend. Add in the fact that Keaton's record of projects lately doesn't inspire excitement, and you get a movie that will be lucky to make $10 million, much less make the top five.
The small release movie to watch this weekend is There Will Be Blood. Critics have been singing its praises and Daniel Day Lewis already has a Golden Globe for his performance in the film. It broadens to nearly 400 theaters and stands a chance of clearing into the top ten.
