Oscar Eye: Best Picture Field Thins Out

I just got back from seeing Quantum of Solace, and now looking over the Oscar race I feel like I'm at the end of one of Bond's fight scenes, a battleground littered with bodies and bullet holes. It's been a rough, rough week in the Oscar race, with release date changes, bad buzz and struggles in the editing room destroying the momentum for at least half a dozen releases. And at this point it's not even certain who will manage to take advantage of the the gaps they're leaving. Does such a thing as momentum even exist anymore?

First, let's say goodbye to The Road and The Soloist, both of which will be doing their best in the 2009 Oscar race. They leave big gaps in the Best Actor race-- Viggo Mortensen, Robert Downey Jr. and Jamie Foxx were all possible nominees-- and one new contender for Best Supporting Actor. Downey Jr. will now get a big Oscar push from Paramount (which also pushed The Soloist) for Tropic Thunder, a bawdy comedy that otherwise has no Oscar shot. RDJ's performance was the second-most talked about of the summer (after Heath Ledger, of course), and deserves at least a token recognition for Downey Jr.'s phenomenal career resurgence this year. But he'll lose to Ledger, if he makes it in at all, and that's less than he deserved.

There's now a rumor going around that Australia could be delayed as well, floated by Kris Tapley of In Contention in his "Off the Carpet" column. Baz Luhrmann has apparently had trouble meeting his deadlines in the editing room, but given the marketing push that's already started for this movie, it's hard to imagine it disappearing entirely. Of course, I would have said that about The Soloist two weeks ago. In this kind of economy, with this many movies angling for attention, pretty much anything is possible.

And then there are the movies that are still with us, but are getting dinged as their release dates near. Changeling, which opens this Friday, is getting as many hosannas for Angelina Jolie's performance as it's getting yawns from critics who think Clint can do better. Eastwood has another shot coming in December with Gran Torino, which isn't even finished, but Changeling's shots in anything but Best Actress and maybe cinematography are probably over. And across the pond, Frost/Nixon received some middling reviews at the London Film Festival; it seems a searing Broadway play has been turned into the usual soppy Ron Howard mush. Odds are the Americans will be kinder-- he's Opie, after all!-- and when has the Academy ever shied away from soppy mush? But that's a big blow to what could have been the prestige event of this winter.

When it comes to momentum, which can become so much of the challenge as Oscar voting nears, I can only see one upcoming movie building its way up. Last week I saw Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle's movie that, I'll admit, had me teary near the end. Set in India and featuring a lot of Hindi and severe poverty, it's not typical Oscar stuff at first glance. But it also features adorable children, a literal rags-to-riches story, and a glimpse into a fascinating foreign culture, plus an audience-pleasing ending that's so sappy it'll make your teeth hurt. Fox Searchlight have made kings of tiny indies Little Miss Sunshine and Juno in the past, and they know how to play the momentum game better than anyone. Millionaire also comes during a big gap, opening against Quantum of Solace Nov. 14 but at least two weeks ahead of any other Oscar race. With the field to itself, it may be able to make a big play. Coming up before then, though, we have I've Loved You So Long, which I've already mentioned as a near-lock for Kristin Scott Thomas as Best Actress, Changeling, and Synecdoche, New York, which I'm almost prepared to knock off the chart entirely. There are parts of it worth liking, but my bet is it won't be able to cross over to any significant degree that will get it attention.

Off the chart this week are the delayed The Soloist and The Road, as well as Flash of Genius and Body of Lies, two movies that, by virtue of box office, seem unlikely to make their way through. Sorry guys; better luck next year.

Next week is a bad one for me in terms of screening Oscar possibilities, and the release calendar in general will be bare for a while-- Slumdog Millionaire, coming out Nov. 14, is really and truly the next major contender. By then we'll have a new President! It'll be whole different world. So next week seems like an opportune time to talk directors-- who's due, who might sneak in, and why Clint Eastwood seems to be here every damn year. In the meantime, go see I've Loved You So Long, and we'll meet back next week.

Changeling

Angelina's role is pure Oscar bait-- lots of screaming and crying-- but the movie isn't all that great. She got snubbed last year for A Mighty Heart, but Clint might be the boost she needs.

I've Loved You So Long

Kristin Scott Thomas is so friggin' good in this. She deserves the nod, and with critical champions for her performance all over the place, she'll probably get it.

Synecdoche, New York

Charlie Kaufman's screenplays are popular with Oscar, but his directing debut is weird and disjointed even by his standards. The screenplay and Philip Seymour Hoffman in the lead are both longshots.

Soul Men

Bernie Mac's final performance is supposed to be great, but the movie will have to be pretty good as well to earn Mac's posthumous nod.

Quantum of Solace

Never underestimate Bond for technical nods (remember how Bourne cleaned up last year?) Some thought Casino Royale deserved more attention two years ago, and if this one is good, it might get it.

Slumdog Millionaire

Colorful, lively and a bit sentimental, Danny Boyle's movie would probably seem too sappy if it weren't the India setting and the violence. But will the Academy go for a British movie that's half subtitles?

Australia

If this old-fashioned, gorgeous war epic has Baz Luhrmann in top form once again, it'll be unstoppable.

Milk

Great early buzz on this biopic and a big lead performance from Academy favorite Sean Penn make this one of the strongest contenders. Post-Brokeback, hopefully the gay thing won't hurt it.

Frost/Nixon

Early reviews out of the London Film Fetival were tepid at best, but Americans love Ron Howard and it's probably too soon to count it out entirely.

Hunger

's lead performance probably can't make it into Oscar, but independent awards could turn him into a long, long shot.

Che

Benicio del Toro is another longshot Best Actor hopeful; the rest of the movie probably doesn't stand a chance, even with Steven Soderbergh behind it.

The Class

The Palme d'Or winner has a good shot at a Best Foreign Language nod. After that, its future is murkier.

Doubt

Another adaptation of a classy play, and this one has Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman as added bonuses. One of the strongest contenders out there.

The Reader

It will be hampered, however unfairly, by all the bad behind-the-scenes drama. Plus, Kate Winslet is competing against her own role in Revolutionary Road. Still, it looks promising enough to overcome its hurdles.

Wendy and Lucy

Michelle Williams will have to fight her way through the crowded Best Actress field, but her role in this small indie is stellar. I'll be rooting for her, at least.

Seven Pounds

Will Smith in a sentimental drama, directed by the same way who did The Pursuit of Happyness. He has a real shot at Best Actor.

The Wrestler

Mickey Rourke is practically a lock for Best Actor, and the movie as a whole may be able to ride his coattails. Director Darren Aronofsky seems particularly due.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

David Fincher's latest looks visually stunning, and Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett are a great team. If it's as good as it looks, it'll reap some serious awards.

Revolutionary Road

Kate and Leo and Sam Mendes and an acclaimed novel and suburban ennui...what's not to reward? Watch out for Michael Shannon, in a supporting role that's supposed to be killer.

Last Chance Harvey

This indie romance may be able to propel Dustin Hoffman into Best Actor territory.

Valkyrie

It's had such bad buzz for so long that it may just surprise us by being any good at all. It's still a challenge, but not impossible.

Waltz With Bashir

Disqualified from the documentary category, this Israeli feature will try for the foreign language and animated feature categories instead. Tepid NYFF reception may hurt it; it's no Persepolis.

Defiance

Pushed back to the latest release date possible, this Holocaust drama could benefit by having January to itself for a wide release. And who doesn't want to see James Bond fight Nazis?

Gran Torino

This movie might not even be finished, but remember the last time Clint released a movie at the last minute in December, it was Million Dollar Baby. Don't count him out.