When all is said and done, when this Oscar season is over and we've moved on to the best pictures of 2015, Wall-E and The Dark Knight will be the only movies of 2008 that actually matter.
It's sad, but true. I've seen nearly all of this year's big fall Oscar contenders, and not a one of them has possessed the imaginative spark and airtight storytelling we saw in the two summer movies that captivated us most. Instead we're dealing with a lot of good movies-- Frost/Nixon, Rachel Getting Married-- and some damn-near great ones-- Revolutionary Road, Milk-- that Oscar will have to pick from whether they like it or not. It's just the undeniable greatness that, with those summertime exceptions, we're missing this year.
I realize I was spoiled by last year, when I first started writing this column. It was insanely lucky to have three or four directors at the top of their game in one year, not to mention out-of-left-field thrills like Juno and Into the Wild. There's plenty of room in this world for movies like Frost/Nixon, which works on every level but isn't all that inspiring in the end. But the idealist in me wants Oscar to find something visionary worth rewarding every year.
I'll continue beating the drum for Wall-E and The Dark Knight as long as I can, though I'm realistic enough to recognize that Wall-E doesn't really have a shot beyond Animated Feature and The Dark Knight has a lot of fighting left to do. But in the meantime I've at least found a huge list of performances I'm wild about, many of them in movies I loved but others in efforts I found just OK. After all, Best Picture isn't the only statue handed out on Oscar night, and even if The Dark Knight fails in its Best Picture bid (I don't actually think it will), there's plenty else to look forward to. Below, the rundown of some of my favorite ponies in the race.
THE LADIES
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married. She was considered a lock back in October for her out-of-character turn as a drug addict recently out of rehab and on hand to ruin her sister's wedding. But Hathaway may actually have to struggle to get in the race, up against the likes of Cate Blanchett in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (quite good, but nothing spectacular) and Melissa Leo in Frozen River (who just won the Gotham Awards' Best Actress trophy) for that fifth slot. Go Anne!
Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married. I'm worried I"ll start sounding like a broken record on the performances from this movie, which I belatedly saw last week and adored, but DeWitt-- the title character-- really holds her own against Hathaway in a much less flashy way. There's lots of crying and fighting, yes, but her best moments are with her intended husband Sidney-- a woman whose excitement about getting married overcomes the family drama surrounding her. She's got a good chance at making it in the supporting actress derby, too, giving even more room for hope.
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road. Forget The Reader--a German accent and committed accent don't make Winslet's character Hanna worth watching. But in Revolutionary Road, a heartbreaking and mesmerizing drama, Winslet's barely concealed breakdown becomes the heart of the film's message about just how crazy suburbia can make you. The character in the book was a little more opaque, but Winslet brings her brilliantly to life. She's got a great shot at snagging her first Best Actress prize with this one, if only she can get Meryl Streep in Doubt-- and her own performance in The Reader-- out of the way.
Michelle Williams, Wendy and Lucy. She's the longest of long shots in the Best Actress race, the star of a teeny-tiny indie in a year when there are lots of great performances to reward. But she carries this 80-minute movie entirely on her overworked back, and shows a part of life, a part of the world, that doesn't make it into movies often. A nomination would be enough reward, I think, but even that seems iffy at this point.
THE GENTLEMEN
Sean Penn, Milk. Yeah, I know, he sure doesn't need my help-- he's got every critic in the country falling over themselves to praise his performance as Harvey Milk. But as someone who never much liked Penn beforehand, I know he deserves it. The Best Actor field is crowded with a lot of worthy contenders this year, and even if Penn doesn't deserve another Oscar so soon, I may root for him nonetheless.
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road. There I go, contradicting myself-- I want Leo and Sean both to win, especially since DiCaprio remains Oscarless after giving us so many great performances over the years. He's gotten good at playing up the masculine bravado in recent years, but what he does in Revolutionary Road is expose it as a front, a way to act in charge when your life is crumbling. He's remarkable in this, and I can't imagine everyone else not noticing that as well.
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder. Comedy is almost always shut out at the Oscars, but a "serious" actor like Downey Jr. giving a seriously hilarious performance like this one might make room for an exception. He was rightfully named Entertainer of the Year by Entertainment Weekly, and even if there's no room for Tony Stark on Oscar night, Kirk Lazarus might be able to find a way in-- and win yet another Oscar-- after all.
Emile Hirsch, Milk. I realize it's pretty much impossible to make room for three supporting nominees from Milk, and Josh Brolin and James Franco rightfully have the first two slots. But I've got a soft spot for Hirsch's performance as the brash, confident gay activist Cleve Jones, He's funny and endearing in a way he didn't quite accomplish in Into the Wild, and at the very least, it's another fine performance to add to his impressive young resume.
The charts below is shrinking, now that there are even fewer releases left in the year. As always, you can see the chart that includes movies already in release here. Leaving the chart this week are The Duchess, which is lacking any momentum whatsoever, and Quantum of Solace, which seems likely to get edged out in tech awards.
By next week we'll know the winners of the National Board of Review awards, one of the earliest-- if perhaps most meaningless-- Oscar precursors. And not long after that, Golden Globe nominations go out! See, the Oscar season is getting started already. Now you don't have to feel bad about sharing my excitement.
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | FILM | DATE | SYNOPSIS | WIN POTENTIAL |
It's a solid film with exceptional performances, and while it might not make it into Best Picture territory, it deserves a spot in plenty more categories.
Frost/Nixon
12/5
The Palme d'Or winner has a good shot at a Best Foreign Language nod. After that, its future is murkier.
The Class
12/12
It's not the best-directed or most exciting movie, but ths strong performances and moving subject matter will earn votes, if not adoration.
Doubt
12/12
Pretty bland and lifeless, even as historical dramas go. There may be some defenders out there, but I'd much rather pretend this one never happened.
The Reader
12/12
Michelle Williams will have to fight her way through the crowded Best Actress field, but her role in this small indie is stellar. I'll be rooting for her, at least.
Wendy and Lucy
12/12
Will Smith in a sentimental drama, directed by the same way who did The Pursuit of Happyness. He has a real shot at Best Actor.
Seven Pounds
12/19
Mickey Rourke is practically a lock for Best Actor, and the movie as a whole may be able to ride his coattails. Director Darren Aronofsky seems particularly due.
The Wrestler
12/19
Some people love it (I didn't, really) and it will surely find room in the race, but is is passionate enough to actually win anything?
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
12/19
Gorgeous, heartbreaking, captivating, perfectly acted and directed. It's the whole package, and hopefully will get its due when awards come around.
Revolutionary Road
12/25
It's a minor movie with a good-but-not-great performance from Hoffman. I don't see it pushing its way through the end-of-the-year scrum.
Last Chance Harvey
12/25
It's had such bad buzz for so long that it may just surprise us by being any good at all. It's still a challenge, but not impossible.
Valkyrie
12/25
Disqualified from the documentary category, this Israeli feature will try for the foreign language and animated feature categories instead. Tepid NYFF reception may hurt it; it's no Persepolis.
Waltz With Bashir
12/25
Pushed back to the latest release date possible, this Holocaust drama could benefit by having January to itself for a wide release. And who doesn't want to see James Bond fight Nazis?
Defiance
12/31
Remember the last time Clint released a movie at the last minute in December, it was Million Dollar Baby. Don't count him out.
Gran Torino
Sometime in December
