It's a little crazy to be writing this column right now. The Golden Globe nominees are announced tomorrow, and when that happens the Oscar race will finally be out of the hands of the critics, and nominees will have to start preparing acceptance speeches and red carpet walks. The Golden Globes, known as the raucous younger sister of the Oscars, will surely pick some off-the-wall nominees, but it's rightly or wrongly regarded as an Oscar precursor, and will be fought over accordingly.
But there's so much fighting to do now as well! Last week the National Board of Review made their picks of the year, and they were followed in short succession by the Broadcast Film Critics Association, the Los Angeles Film Critics and the New York ones as well. This weekend I'll vote as part of the New York Film Critics Online, and the top tens and critics' guild awards will come rolling in at an unstoppable speed. Now is the time to start gasping over omissions, despair over a snub for your favorite film or performance, or marvel that another critic's group thought the same way you did.
The BFCA, LA and NY critics (let's leave the NBR alone for now) aren't the be-all and end-all of critic's groups, but they do make a nifty shorthand for the group at large, with the BFCA being such a big group and the smaller bunch on either coast being so obstinate in their choices. So it's worth taking a look at the winners and losers among this bunch as they go into the Globe nominations. Who really, really needs that Globe win? Who only stands for smooth sailing from here? Will the Globes matter to some of these guys in the slightest? Start the conversation below.
THE BIG LOSERS
Revolutionary Road. Everything about this film, from actors to cinematographers, have been snubbed across the board, even when the BFCA included six actors in each of their lead categories. It's bad, bad news for a movie that has everything going for it on paper, and was getting positive critical response so far. As I mention in the charts below, if there's a shut-out at the Globes, this beautiful, near-perfect film may be out of the race entirely.
Doubt. It made its expected appearance on the BFCA top ten, but only score "best ensemble" with the NBR, and Penelope Cruz has taken Best Supporting Actress with every group, beating out Doubt's best acting hopeful, Viola Davis. With Kate Winslet's chances for Best Actress falling apart as Revolutionary Road falters, Meryl Streep may have a better shot at Best Actress, but Doubt is increasingly looking like an also-ran.
Kristin Scott Thomas. She was shut out of the BFCA nominees, and hasn't shown up on the LA or NY ballots either. She was so celebrated earlier in the season, and now seems nearly forgotten. She'll need critical support from somewhere to shore up her chances in a big, crowded category.
CONFIRMED CONTENDERS
Slumdog Millionaire. Scoring the NBR's best film, snagging 6 BFCA nominations and winning Best Director from the L.A. film critics, Slumdog is proving itself as more than a feelgood favorite, but an actual critical achievement. Being the happiest movie of the season surely won't hurt it, and it seems likely to do well with the Globes tomorrow, which will only further cement its reputation.
Milk. Winner in New York, and sporting the most nominations with the BFCA, it's riding neck-and-neck with Slumdog. It also has the added benefit of lots of acting nominations and wins for Sean Penn and Josh Brolin, which makes it more likely to snag more total Oscar nominations that Slumdog. Not that it's all about the numbers, but with Oscar, you never know what's going to turn the tide.
Penelope Cruz. She has steamrolled all the other competition in the Supporting Actress category, looking a whole lot like boyfriend Javier Bardem did at this point last year: unbeatable. If she wins the Oscar, he'll present it to her (last year's supporting actor winner presents this year's supporting actress), and Spain's most attractive couple will bask in the glory. Isn't that enough to make you want her to win?
Man On Wire. It keeps sweeping the documentary categories, indicating that pretty much everything else this year will be an also-ran. As it should be.
BIG WINNERS
Frozen River/Melissa Leo: She was a runner-up in Los Angeles, and the film won Best Debut in New York (not that there was much competition). Oscar-wise its main chances lie with Leo, who could benefit from a crazy Best Actress race, but if more critics line up behind it, a screenplay nod is possible too. It's remarkable that this has held on so well since it debuted in August, which means passionate supporters are ready to take it all the way to the end.
Wall-E. It came out of nowhere to be named Best Picture by the L.A. critics, which has people seriously considering it for Best Picture Oscar for the first time since it came out in theaters. It still has a major animation bias to get over, but if it manages to get into the Globes drama category (unlikely, but possible), we could have a major robot spoiler coming our way.
Happy-Go-Lucky. Both coasts of critics bypassed Kate, Meryl, Anne and the rest to name Sally Hawkins their Best Actress, and between them they gave the film best screenplay and director nods as well. Mike Leigh has done disproportionately well with the Oscars as well, which means he could all of a sudden be the lone Best Director nominee without a Best Picture to match it (that still seems like way, way too much of a longshot).
The Dark Knight. Even though Heath Ledger has lost out to Josh Brolin with the two critic groups, it was runner-up to Wall-E for Best Picture with LAFCA, indicating that the critics there are still taking it seriously as a Best Picture contender. The Golden Globes will clear up the picture for this one as well.
Below I've made massive changes to the charts, which of course will have to be changed again tomorrow once the Globe nominations go out. C'est la vie. By next week we'll have those to tangle with, along with my own NYFCO awards (maybe I'll have some juicy gossip! Maybe not!) and who knows how many other critics groups. And the very next day we'll know the SAG nominees, probably a much clearer signal than these critics, who are all over the place.
As always, check out the full charts, with movies already in release, here. And I'll see you next week for more madness!
Taken off the chart this week for lack of overall momentum: W.
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | FILM | DATE | SYNOPSIS | WIN POTENTIAL |
The Class
A runner-up for the LAFCA in Best Foreign Language film, and shut out by the BFCA. The nomination seems guaranteed, but a win? Less certain now.
Doubt
None of its performers have been singled out by critics groups, but they're all still in the running; chances for anything outside the acting categories are getting slimmer, though.
The Reader
The question remains where Kate Winslet will land-- lead or supporting?-- and if she'll run up agaist herself in Revolutionary Road. As the other film's prospects sink, though, this may be her ride to Oscar at last.
Wendy and Lucy
No critic's group has picked her up yet, but the Best Actress field is so volatile right now that one nod could kick off a serious campaign.
Seven Pounds
Still a big quesiton mark, even though many critics have seen it. It hasn't shown up at all in critic's awards, though, which indicates this will be bigger at the box office than at the Oscars.
The Wrestler
has been in the thick of it for Best Actor with the critics, and though he's yet to win, his nomination is not at all in doubt. As for the rest of the film... it's looking iffy.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The critic awards haven't come out strong for it, with David Fincher making the best show so far. Can it actually go all the way? Golden Globe nominations will help clear this one up a whole lot.
Revolutionary Road
It's been shut out entirely of the critics awards so far, including the ever-generous BFCA. If the Golden Globes don't bite, this journey, tragically, could already be over. A real shame.
Last Chance Harvey
After a little early buzz, there's not much talk about this one now. The Golden Globes could boost it, given that it's a comedy, but it's not likely for big awards at this point.
Valkyrie
Again, it's a mystery, but it's not screening in time for critic's groups, which means it's probably not a real hopeful. Still, surprises are possible.
Waltz With Bashir
It won the animated category in LA after Wall-E took the big prize, and was a close also-ran in New York too. Second place will be the best for this one at Oscars too.
Defiance
New Yorker critic David Denby named it the best of the year, but not many other critics went wild for this one (I sure didn't). If it's ignored at the Globes (likely), this one is over.
Gran Torino
Some people love the way Clint Eastwood growls his way through this movie; some people loathe it. But he's just universally beloved enough to sneak into that Best Actor race, damn him. The rest of the movie, though, forget it.
