Oscar Eye: Life Of Pi And Silver Linings Playbook Make Their Case For Best Picture

If your Thanksgiving is going anything like mine, you're realizing with a mix of excitement and dread that the movie year is almost over, and there's a lot left to catch up on. Without even digging into movies that are on DVD, there are a ton of films out in theaters right now or on VOD that at least deserve awards consideration-- and if you're a critic or a voter on any awards, the pressure is seriously on. Between now and Christmas Academy and guild members will be swamped with screeners and invitations to special screenings, with every studio hoping their film will rise above the fray and get noticed in time to be mentioned on ballots.

Some movies will have no trouble-- both Argo and Lincoln have already nailed the crucial combination of critical raves and box office success that means they automatically get considered, and it's hard to imagine the Best Picture lineup without either of them. And this weekend several films are aiming for the same success, with Life of Pi opening wide and selling itself as an inspiring and dazzling family film, Silver Linings Playbook rolling out in limited release with a massive marketing campaign, and films like Anna Karenina and The Sessions attempting to build on limited release appeal as they expand to more theaters. Thanskgiving is a great time to put yourself out there and appeal to audiences sick of spending time with their families, and for fans of films with awards potential, there's a whole lot to choose from.

You can click here for our very own guide of what's worth catching, but as ever, the thing to keep an eye on this weekend is box office. There's still time for critics to swoop in in a few weeks and pick up movies they love that didn't quite sail with audiences or were released a while ago-- The Master is poised to make a major comeback, as could Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom-- but when it comes to the films jostling in the crowded holiday marketplace, box office can determine a lot. And that could apply especially this year, as there's still no No Country for Old Men-style steamroller frontrunner, and there's room for a late release like Les Miserables or even Django Unchained to arrive, take over, and ride audience appeal all the way to the Oscars.

The Weinstein Company seems to think Silver Linings Playbook can do that, despite the seeming uncertainty of the canceled-at-the-last-minute wide release; there's definitely room for a Juno-style, rough-edged indie hit this year, and I think if people actually see the movie, they'll love it the way audiences have at festivals. I'm less certain about Life of Pi, which is visually stunning but not necessarily as entertaining or all-ages-appealing as the movie it's constantly being compared to, Avatar. Each of them are major Best Picture contenders (unlike my beloved Anna Karenina, sadly, or the soon-to-open Rust and Bone and Hitchcock) and after the holiday we should know a lot more about where each of them stand.

In the meantime, though, we'll dig into the charts, where there's more tightening happening in all of the categories, and I finally come to terms with the juggernaut that Lincoln has been all along.

Alright, fine-- Lincoln is a Mortal Lock. I knew it last week and hesitated for no good reason. Elsewhere I've bumped Flight up to Likely Contender, since its $61 million at the box office so far promises significant staying power, and I've let go of This is 40 and Killing Them Softly as Outside Chances, since-- despite some warm reviews for both-- they're clearly not going to be on the Academy radar. Next week some critics will have finally seen Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty, so we'll finally be able to gauge these based on more than just a hunch that they'll be in the conversation.

I still just can't place Spielberg in the Mortal Lock spot, since he missed out on a nomination for the super Academy-friendly War Horse, and there seems to be a sense that you can skip over him since he's been nominated so many times. But Affleck is definitely there-- and even if Spielberg gets nominated, he might be the best pick for a win at this point.

Day-Lewis still has the Mortal Lock all to himself, partly because Fox Searchlight is up against themselves, with both Anthony Hopkins in Hitchcock and John Hawkes in The Sessions to promote for a nomination. It shouldn't be too hard to get nominations for each of them, but in a category this crowded you really never know. And again, keep an eye on Hugh Jackman, who really does have the power to change this category yet again when Les Mis emerges in the next week.

Sometimes when you've got a category that feels this empty, one contender can walk into the vacuum and run away with it. There's no guarantee yet but some anonymous rumors say that Jessica Chastian in Zero Dark Thirty is formidable, and she's in a similarly strong position as Jennifer Lawrence-- an ingenue who recently emerged out of nowhere and has a previous nomination to back up her bona fides. It could be a fascinating showdown between the two of them if both get nominated-- and if you add Quvenzhane Wallis to the mix, a very youth-focused Best Actress competition.

With the rising strength of Lincoln, Tommy Lee Jones moves into the Mortal Lock category, and the four-strong lineup in the category below him still looks pretty solid. But again-- Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe remain mysterious. We can't guarantee anything until their movies get shown.

Anne Hathaway's Les Mis performance will be revealed in the next week. Until then we seriously don't know what's up. And yes, this category continues to drive me crazy.