Yes We Can! Yes We Can! Wait, I'm sorry, are the victory parties over? I imagine I'm not the only one wrapped up in politics still, a little exhausted and really elated and refusing to remove my Obama button. But lets face it-- now that the polling is done and every House seat has been determined, we all need something else to obsess over. And for me, the answer is always the Oscars. It'll be a few days before I start feeling real passion for determining Best Actor nominees or whether Clint Eastwood can get into the directing category again, but I know I'll need that obsession when it happens. And when the Oscars happen, they'll be happening during an Obama administration. How cool is that?!
And as it turns out, the first Oscar contender I've seen since Tuesday night is Milk, which brought many of the same emotions right back to the surface. The movie, about gay rights leader Harvey Milk and his efforts to defeat a California bill that would ban gay teachers, comes out November 26, while many Californians will still be hurting from the passage of Proposition 8, which bans gay marriage in the state. Some pundits are speculating that the movie could have helped defeat Prop 8 had it been released a few weeks earlier, given the way the movie vocally supports gay rights as human rights and make clear that, 30 years into the gay rights movement, we still have so far to go.
I don't know how much effect Milk, or any movie, can have on actual politics, but I foresee actual politics having a huge impact on the movie and its Oscar chances. It's no secret that the Academy is made up of the kind of liberals who opposed Prop 8-- Steven Spielberg and Brad Pitt each donated $100,000 to stop the bill-- and many voters may still be reeling when Milk screeners arrive at their door. What bigger statement can they make about Proposition 8 than to reward Milk with an Oscar, a defiant stand that proves the gay rights movement did not die with Harvey Milk? Yes, this is the same Academy that denied Brokeback Mountain an Oscar, but we all know there were a lot of reasons for that upset. The Oscars will be presented just a month after the inauguration of Barack Obama, a politician whose message of hope and change significantly echoes Harvey Milk's words. That association will almost definitely be made over and over, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it reap benefits on Oscar night.
I'm not actually allowed to write about Milk, thanks to a poorly thought-out review embargo, but I'll say it's a very, very good movie that would deserve its Oscar run regardless of the politics surrounding it. Sean Penn will be nominated for Best Actor; James Franco may well find himself in the Supporting Actor category as well, though there are so many other great supporting performances-- Josh Brolin and Emile Hirsch among them-- that it may be hard to choose. Milk has a slight head start on the other Oscar bait that's largely holding off until December, and when it is released, it will instantly become the Oscar frontrunner-- at least for a week, until the next big thing comes out.
The other next big thing that's supposed to open right next to Milk is Australia, which Baz Luhrmann confessed to an Australian newspaper was still not finished as of Halloween. The movie is hugely expensive, hugely long, and apparently hugely rushed-- all things that could add up to a giant disaster. Of course, that was what they said about Titanic. But Luhrmann's giant epic remains a huge question mark as most of the other big fall movies start to screen, and that early bad buzz could mean bad things for it even if the movie turns out just fine.
And that's pretty much it for Oscar news this week. Looking at the charts, I've finally seen The Visitor, and while I liked it, I think Richard Jenkins is an even longer shot for Best Actor than he was before. Same goes for Bernie Mac in Soul Men, who I'm removing from the chart entirely-- it's a lovely performance, but the movie is a little too juvenile and raunchy to make it into the big race. I've also removed Secret Life of Bees, much to my chagrin, because it just doesn't seem to be catching on. Same goes for Miracle at St. Anna, which has probably been in the chart longer than it deserved to be. A lot of contenders falling out of line here, which just leaves more room for the big deals to come in in December.
Last week I said we'd talk about the supporting categories this time, but next week I mean it, we'll do it. Especially because I've now seen Milk, with its plethora of strong supporting male performances, and tonight I'm seeing Doubt, which will have both Amy Adams and Philip Seymour Hoffman competing as supporting players. Oh and I'm seeing The Dark Knight on IMAX again on Monday! I fully expect Heath Ledger's performance to surprise and wow me again as much as it did back in July. See y'all next Wednesday.
| Row 0 - Cell 0 | FILM | DATE | SYNOPSIS | WIN POTENTIAL |
Quantum of Solace
It's not as good as Casino Royale, and with Iron Man and Dark Knight in the running for technical nods, it seems a likely shut-out.
Slumdog Millionaire
Colorful, lively and a bit sentimental, Danny Boyle's movie would probably seem too sappy if it weren't the India setting and the violence. But will the Academy go for a British movie that's half subtitles?
Australia
Will it get finished? And if it's finished in a hurry, will it be any good? I'm looking forward to this movie, but it's a giant, giant question mark.
Milk
A beautiful, excellent biopic with political themes well-suited to this moment. One of the frontrunners, if not #1 at this point.
Frost/Nixon
Early reviews out of the London Film Fetival were tepid at best, but Americans love Ron Howard and it's probably too soon to count it out entirely.
Hunger
Michael Fassbender's lead performance probably can't make it into Oscar, but independent awards could turn him into a long, long shot.
Che
Benicio del Toro is another longshot Best Actor hopeful; the rest of the movie probably doesn't stand a chance, even with Steven Soderbergh behind it.
The Class
The Palme d'Or winner has a good shot at a Best Foreign Language nod. After that, its future is murkier.
Doubt
Another adaptation of a classy play, and this one has Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman as added bonuses. One of the strongest contenders out there.
The Reader
It will be hampered, however unfairly, by all the bad behind-the-scenes drama. Plus, Kate Winslet is competing against her own role in Revolutionary Road. Still, it looks promising enough to overcome its hurdles.
Wendy and Lucy
Michelle Williams will have to fight her way through the crowded Best Actress field, but her role in this small indie is stellar. I'll be rooting for her, at least.
Seven Pounds
Will Smith in a sentimental drama, directed by the same way who did The Pursuit of Happyness. He has a real shot at Best Actor.
The Wrestler
Mickey Rourke is practically a lock for Best Actor, and the movie as a whole may be able to ride his coattails. Director Darren Aronofsky seems particularly due.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
David Fincher's latest looks visually stunning, and Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett are a great team. If it's as good as it looks, it'll reap some serious awards.
Revolutionary Road
Kate and Leo and Sam Mendes and an acclaimed novel and suburban ennui...what's not to reward? Watch out for Michael Shannon, in a supporting role that's supposed to be killer.
Last Chance Harvey
It's a minor movie with a good-but-not-great performance from Hoffman. I don't see it pushing its way through the end-of-the-year scrum.
Valkyrie
It's had such bad buzz for so long that it may just surprise us by being any good at all. It's still a challenge, but not impossible.
Waltz With Bashir
Disqualified from the documentary category, this Israeli feature will try for the foreign language and animated feature categories instead. Tepid NYFF reception may hurt it; it's no Persepolis.
Defiance
Pushed back to the latest release date possible, this Holocaust drama could benefit by having January to itself for a wide release. And who doesn't want to see James Bond fight Nazis?
Gran Torino
This movie might not even be finished, but remember the last time Clint released a movie at the last minute in December, it was Million Dollar Baby. Don't count him out.
For a full list of Oscar predictions, including movies already in release, CLICK HERE.
