I said this week we would take a look a the Best Director candidates, and since it'll be almost another month before any seriously big Oscar contenders show up, it's time to venture into speculation mode. I've avoided doing this, mostly because all I know about any of these movies is hearsay, but Oscar buzz is already starting around all these movies, which means the race has really already begun. I's not like there's any other kind of race or election to pay attention to, right?
To steer clear of speculation as much as possible, lets take a look at the Best Director possibilities with history in mind. No fewer than seven of the contenders this year have already won directing statues, and several others have been nominated in the past but never won. Then there are a good number of critical favorites who have been inexplicably snubbed, and even more who have shown promise in the past but are only now getting to Oscar territory.
There are 14 men-- all the directors this year, like most years, are men-- who I can conceivably picture being nominated, and eight who look like solid bets at this point. And again, this is all based on history! Precedent says that the director of a Best Picture nominee has a pretty good chance of making it into this category-- in 2005 the categories lined up entirely, and most other years this decade there's been a four out of five correlation. That means if you look at the five most likely Best Picture nominees, according to the geniuses at The Film Experience, Gurus of Gold and In Contention, you've got seven guys who could possibly get in there. There's past winners Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road) and Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), past nominee Gus van Sant (Milk), previously snubbed-but-much-beloved David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire) and Baz Luhrmann (Australia), and Christopher Nolan, quite possibly the richest and most famous out of the whole bunch right now. To all these I'd like to add Jonathan Demme, an Oscar veteran for Silence of the Lambs who has earned rave reviews for Rachel Getting Married.
In past Best Director races, the guys most likely to get into this race even if their picture isn't nominated are the directors of the small indies or foreign masterpieces that miss the boat on Oscar for whatever reason (United 93, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Vera Drake and City of God all fit in here) . On the other side, the directors most likely to get snubbed even if their movies make it are the ones who make the bloodless, Oscar-friendly epics that no one truly loves, but you can't help nominating anyway (here we have the ignored directors of Atonement, Finding Neverland and Seabiscuit).
So let's break it down with historical perspective in mind by director, in alphabetical order, just to play fair:
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire: His movie is being promoted by Fox Searchlight, which makes it this year's Juno or Little Miss Sunshine. Juno's director got a nod (barely); Little Miss Sunshine's didn't (barely). But even if his movie doesn't make it to Best Picture, he can fill the foreign/indie fifth slot and get nominated anyway. His chances? Good
Jonathan Demme, Rachel Getting Married: They say he's back in top form with this small family drama that is very likely to get a Best Actress nomination for its star, Anne Hathaway. Like Boyle, he could slip into the Director field even if his film doesn't get nominated, by virtue of making an indie everyone loved and having a strong career to back it up. His chances?Good
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: No one's seen it yet, but Button might be the romantic epic to beat this year. Which might make Fincher the director to throw under the bus, if he hadn't been such an offbeat presence in the past-- his historical epic is almost guaranteed not to be boring. He'll sink and swim with his movie, but if it's as good as it looks... His chances? Very Good
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon: He's a past winner, but he's been snubbed plenty of other times that he's no safe bet. Plus his movie got tepid early reception, and may not make its way into the top five at all. If competition stays strong, he's in no position to leap past his film to get a nomination by himself. His chances? Iffy
Baz Luhrmann, Australia: Seriously, how has this guy not been nominated before? The director of Moulin Rouge may have a great second chance with Australia, which looks gorgeous enough to eat. On paper, it may fill the slot of Oscar epic that leaves its director behind, but Baz is so overdue, and such a distinctive filmmaker, that he's impossible to overlook. His chances? Very Good.
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road: Returning to the well of suburban angst after he won his only Oscar with American Beauty 9 years ago, he's in prime position both to make it in and to crumble under too-high expectations. He'd be the one most likely to falter as the director of the pretty period movie, but only if his movie is weaker compared to the competition. His chances? Good
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight: Complaints about his direction of acting aside, Nolan did a bang-up job making one of the best sequels ever. The only thing standing in his way is superhero stigma and pretension that's only willing to reward "prestige" movies. But with the Academy desperate for more viewers, The Dark Knight might get a pass that brings Nolan along on its wave. His chances? Good
Gus Van Sant, Milk: A beguiling indie director before he turned briefly to Hollywood mush, Van Sant seems to have combined the best of both his instincts in Milk, which will very soon be screened for critics and likely living up to its advanced hype. He's the closest thing to a lock in this race. His chances? Excellent
Other possibilities: Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler), Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino and/or Changeling), Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), Oliver Stone (W.), Steven Soderbergh (Che) Edward Zwick (Defiance)
Any of those guys at the bottom could sneak in there, especially Aronofsky, who will have strong Best Actor nominee in his star Mickey Rourke, and Clint Eastwood, who is, uh, Clint Eastwood. That's what's fun about this time of year-- it's way too early to rule out any of your favorites. But as the movies near release, and some of them-- Slumdog Millionaire especially-- start to resonate with critics, the race will tighten. But we've got a month of fun speculation before then.
As for the chart below, not much has changed. I've added Dear Zachary, a tiny documentary that comes out this Friday but is finding champions among critics and other influential types. It's literally the most heartbreaking movie I've ever seen, but I think it could have a big pull on audiences who are willing to go through a story without a happy ending. And I've significantly changed the chances for Dustin Hoffman of Last Chance Harvey to make it into the race; it's a nice little movie, but nothing that can break out in such a crowded December.
Next week lets take a look at the supporting categories, which are some of the biggest question marks of the entire race. Kate Winslet is officially going supporting for The Reader, and Heath Ledger will clean up in his race, but other than that? The field is wide open. My favorite kind!
