Oscar Eye: Predicting Best Picture, Sorta

Sorry for the delay on this week's installment of Oscar Eye. I wanted to put things off until I had seen I've Loved You So Long, the French movie that is pretty much guaranteed to get Kristin Scott Thomas a second Best Actress Oscar nomination. That screening got out at 8, and of course at 9 I had to watch Grandpa McCrankypants and the Hope Monger square off, so there went the rest of my evening. (I promise that's the last time I'll reference real politics rather than Oscar politics in this column. Seriously!)

So before I get into today's main topic-- Best Picture! And a little bit of The Dark Knight!-- I want to talk about Thomas, who gives an honest-to-God amazing performance in I've Loved You So Long, one of my favorite movies I've seen in ages. Thomas, English by birth but speaking French here, plays a woman sent to jail for murdering her 6-year-old son, though the exact circumstances of the boy's death aren't clear until the final scene of the film. After 15 years in jail she movies in with her younger sister, who was only a teenager when she left and knows her sister mostly as a mysterious stranger. As the two get to know each other, and Thomas's character Juliette comes to relearn the outside world, the movie encompasses so many aspects from humanity, from new romance to the joy of children. The movie itself is a gem, and Thomas anchors it; she'll be everywhere as Oscar season progresses, and hopefully audiences will overcome the language barrier to catch her great performance.

OK, on to the big one, Best Picture, which has seen a lot of shakeups in the last few weeks despite most major contenders still being a month away from release. First, there was the whole debacle between Scott Rudin and Harvey Weinstein over The Reader, the World War II drama starring Kate Winslet and directed by Stephen Daldry (The Hours, Billy Elliott). You can read details about the mess here, but basically Rudin, the producer, and Weinstein, representing the distributor, bickered over when the movie should be released; Weinstein, gunning for a December '08 release, won, and now Rudin has abandoned the project entirely. This results in terrible buzz for a movie that isn't even finished yet, and tarnishes the Oscar project of a movie that already has competition from its own lead actress, who also stars in Revolutionary Road this December.

Then there's The Road, which has been hit with rumors of a delay today at Entertainment Weekly. The movie is considered a hard sell given its post-apocalyptic themes, but it's based on a novel by Cormac McCarthy, who also wrote the familiar title No Country for Old Men. Viggo Mortensen may also be competing against himself, given his starring role in the Holocaust drama Good, but The Road has been considered a major contender for months now. Delaying this movie until 2009 would mean yet another major shift in the landscape.

As for the movies already in release, the sole major contender is still The Dark Knight, which has fallen off the public radar ever since it stopped earning over $1 million in a weekend (to be fair, that only happened two weeks ago, in its 11th week of release). In Contention recently raised the possibility that Heath Ledger could compete as Best Actor as opposed to Best Supporting Actor, which is the kind of rumor that can only take flight before studios have started their big For Your Consideration campaigns. It's unlikely to stick, but rumors like that stoke the fires for The Dark Knight's campaign, which, weirdly enough, could get drowned out by the madness of Oscar season, even though it's the biggest movie of the year. Funny how these things work. When Oscar predictions start getting serious, and the period for nominations kicks off at the end of the year, The Dark Knight will become a hot topic once more; in the meantime it's up to those who are in the tank for the movie to keep the home fires burning. For the record, I'm 100% behind a Best Picture nod for The Dark Knight-- even though you all crucified me for giving it a measly 4.5 out of 5 stars for my review.

So after a month and a half of the fall movie season, it's been more about movies that have fallen out of contention than those that have gained momentum. Body of Lies tanked at the box office, and went it went all hopes of Oscar. Che got poor festival reception, and Changeling's was mediocre, so it'll be an uphill climb for both of those lead performance-driven movies. W. has gotten so-so reviews, except for some raves for Josh Brolin's performance, and Secret Life of Bees is gaining no traction for its strong female leads. Does anyone remember that Duchess and Appaloosa were released earlier this fall? You'd think given that we're all holding our breath for the big releases in November and December, we'd find something to cling to in the meantime; instead everyone keeps repeating "Milk, Revolutionary Road, Doubt, etc." to themselves and counting the days until those movies finally come out.

By the time of next week's column, I'll have seen Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle's movie that's favored by some to make it in for Best Picture, and....wait for it... Quantum of Solace. I won't be allowed to write about it, but I promise to drop lots of maddening hints. In the meantime, I invite you to check out the chart at Gurus of Gold, which aggregates Oscar predictions from all kinds of smart people, and is willing to go into the kind of speculation I don't bother with. I mean take a look at their top five Best Picture predictions... four of the five are movies practically no one has seen, and the fifth is Slumdog Millionaire, which premiered at Toronto. It's going to be amazing to see how much this stuff change once these movies actually see the light of day.

Also check out the updated chart below, which includes a second chart for movies already in release. Look how organized we're getting! See you all next week.

W.

Most reviews are iffy, but still go out of their way to praise Brolin. It's a crowded Best Actor field, and he'll have to struggle to find room.

The Secret Life of Bees

All the talented actresses could cancel each other out, but Sophie Okonedo might emerge in her role as an emotionally disturbed woman. Dakota Fanning is aces, too.

Changeling

Angelina's role is pure Oscar bait-- lots of screaming and crying-- but the movie isn't all that great. She got snubbed last year for A Mighty Heart, but Clint might be the boost she needs.

I've Loved You So Long

Kristin Scott Thomas is so friggin' good in this. She deserves the nod, and with critical champions for her performance all over the place, she'll probably get it.

Synecdoche, New York

Charlie Kaufman's screenplays are popular with Oscar, but his directing debut is weird and disjointed even by his standards. The screenplay and Philip Seymour Hoffman in the lead are both longshots.

Soul Men

Bernie Mac's final performance is supposed to be great, but the movie will have to be pretty good as well to earn Mac's posthumous nod.

Quantum of Solace

Never underestimate Bond for technical nods (remember how Bourne cleaned up last year?) Some thought Casino Royale deserved more attention two years ago, and if this one is good, it might get it.

The Road

Put this down with big question mark, since no one knows if it'll even get released this year. The Nov. 14 release date will definitely not stick, but without a new one, I'm leaving it here for now.

Slumdog Millionaire

A big hit at the Toronto Film Festival, the feelgood British movie could be Danny Boyle's first trip to the Oscars.

The Soloist

Oscar winner Jamie Foxx + on-fire Robert Downey Jr. + wunderkind director Joe Wright + inspiring true story = Oscar lock. As long as it's any good, that is.

Australia

If this old-fashioned, gorgeous war epic has Baz Luhrmann in top form once again, it'll be unstoppable.

Milk

Great early buzz on this biopic and a big lead performance from Academy favorite Sean Penn make this one of the strongest contenders. Post-Brokeback, hopefully the gay thing won't hurt it.

Frost/Nixon

Based on an acclaimed play, directed by Ron Howard and featuring two strong lead performances, if it's not stuffy and stagy it'll be a lock.

Hunger

Michael Fassbender's lead performance probably can't make it into Oscar, but independent awards could turn him into a long, long shot.

Che

Benicio del Toro is another longshot Best Actor hopeful; the rest of the movie probably doesn't stand a chance, even with Steven Soderbergh behind it.

Defiance

Oscar loves Holocaust drama, and even audiences might like one that seems likely to feature ass-kicking. Promising on paper; will it be any good?

The Class

The Palme d'Or winner has a good shot at a Best Foreign Language nod. After that, its future is murkier.

Doubt

Another adaptation of a classy play, and this one has Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman as added bonuses. One of the strongest contenders out there.