There's one event taking place this week that will have the entire country, and maybe even the world, pausing in their daily routine to take notice. For some it will change their lives forever; for others, it's simply another way to mark where we've been, and what the world will look like going forward.
I speak, of course, about the Oscar nominations. Wait, you're telling me there's something else going on this week? OK, fine. I'll be paying attention to the Inauguration tomorrow just like everyone else, but come Thursday at some ungodly early hour, my eyes will be glued to some worn-out people in Hollywood, announcing the names of this year's Oscar nominees.
So this week, in preparation, and to keep myself from YouTubing Obama speeches all day, I'll be laying out my predictions for the nominees. We'll do them in three big batches, starting with the most minimal, which means today will be a lot of those technical awards you don't usually care about. But by Wednesday I'll have, probably foolishly, told you what I think will get nominated for the big ones-- and on Thursday you can make fun of how wrong I was. Let's do it!
Best Original Song
"The Wrestler" by Bruce Springsteen, The Wrestler
"Down to Earth" by Peter Gabriel, Wall-E
"Jai Ho" by A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
"Gran Torino" by Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
"I Thought I Lost You" by Miley Cyrus and John Travolta, Bolt
The first two have the undeniable power of two popular veterans behind them, not to mention being pretty great songs in and of themselves. The third is from the year's most beloved film, and is instantly evocative of that final dance sequence, which is one of the most lasting images from the film. The "Gran Torino" song is basically crap, but it's hard to see them resisting the urge to give Clint Eastwood a new kind of nomination. And the Bolt song is cute, from a good movie, and provides an iressistible chance to see those two duet together onstage.
Also possible "Once in a Lifetime" from Cadillac Records (performed by Beyonce)
Best Original Score
A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
James Newton Howard and Hans Zimmer, The Dark Knight
Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Clint Eastwood, Changeling
Thomas Newman, Wall-E
We don't have many precursors in this category other than Rahman's Globe win, and it's hard to even go off popular support here, since both Frost/Nixon and Milk-- viable Best Picture contenders-- don't have memorable scores to speak of. While I resist putting Wall-E in there for some reason (much as I love it), I found it hard to imagine anything else in the fifth slot. And yeah, Clint Eastwood seems like a bizarre pick, but I guess this is where I start thinking the Academy will lean heavily in his favor once again this year.
Also possible Thomas Newman for Revolutionary Road, John Williams for Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Best Sound Mixing and Editing
Iron Man
The Dark Knight
Wall-E
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Yes, I realize these are two separate categories. But I'm having trouble separating them, both due to lack of real knowledge on my part and the fact that the only precursor, the Cinema Audio Society, only has one category for feature films. So while it's possible to trade in Quantum of Solace (a CAS nominee) in one of these categories, these are the best guesses I have for the moment.
Also possible Quantum of Solace, Defiance.
Best Makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
I'm having a hard time with this category, because the seven films eligible here all have something going for them, and often movies that aren't contenders in the bigger categories, like Click and Norbit in past years, get in here. Still, I'm going with three Best Picture contenders, two of them for old-age makeup, and one of them for the unforgettable visage of The Joker.
Also possible Hellboy II: The Golden Army, Tropic Thunder
Best Costume Design
Revolutionary Road
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Sex and the City
The Duchess
OK, I admit, these nominations are particularly crazy. But this is a damn hard category to predict, given that the guild nominates a bazillion films in a ton of categories, and some of the biggest powerhouses-- Sandy Powell, Jenny Beavan-- worked on films that don't have traction in other categories (that would be The Other Boleyn Girl and Defiance, respectively). So I'm going with three films that are in the Best Picture mix and have great costumes to boot-- the top three-- and then two more that had truly decadent and fabulous costumes. Patricia Field may be too out there for the costumers, in which case, sub her with Sandy Powell. But wouldn't it be more fun for Field to get in there?
Also possible The Other Boleyn Girl, Changeling
Best Art Direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Again, a tricky category, even more so because of the lack of Huge Grand Epic Movies that necessitate building giant banquet halls and castles and such. But Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, Changeling and The Reader all evoked periods of time with exquisite detail, and The Dark Knight created its own, alternate, terrifying world. All impressive work.
Also possible Milk, Slumdog Millionaire.
