We're finally here! Time for predictions in the categories you actually follow, some of them featuring movies you've actually seen! These are also the categories I've though about the most, changed my mind about constantly, and debated between what I want to happen vs. what I actually think will happen.
The below predictions are a combination of the two, going with conventional wisdom for the most part but departing occasionally to throw support behind something I really and truly love. It's less than 16 hours before the nominations come out for real and probably prove half of these wrong, but why not be just a teeny bit bold in the meantime.
Tomorrow morning Rafe will report on the nominees as soon as they're announced, and I'll be back later that day to parse over what it all means, and fess up to what I got wrong. No, seriously, I'll be honest. Just go easy on me.
Best Original Screenplay
Dustin Lance Black, Milk
Jenny Lumet, Rachel Getting Married
Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen,Burn After Reading
Andrew Stanton, Wall-E
The first two here have the benefit of being fresh faces, though Black is a stronger contender given that his film has gotten more awards attention. The second two have the benefit of being very old, very beloved faces-- Woody turned in some of his best work this year and should be rewarded for it, and even if Burn wasn't the best the Coens can do, it's still a damn clever screenplay. I'm giving the fifth slot to Wall-E more out of blind love than anything else, given that there are three or four other screenplays that could easily fill that spot.
Also possible: The Wrestler, The Visitor, Happy-Go-Lucky, Synecdoche New York
Best Adapted Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Peter Morgan Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan, The Dark Knight
These nominees are exactly the ones that were nominated by the WGA in this category, and while I diverged from the WGA a lot for the original category, this one feels spot-on the way it is. It helps that four of the five are strong Best Picture contenders, and the fifth (Doubt) is an adaptation of a very popular, Pulitzer-winning play.
Also possible The Reader, Revolutionary Road
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
Josh Brolin, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Patel doesn't really deserve his spot here, given his serviceable but unspectacular role in Slumdog, but the passionate love for that movie makes his nomination very likely. And Hoffman doesn't belong here either, given that it's a supporting role, but what can you do. The other three are guaranteed locks. Also possible Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road), James Franco (Milk).
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Viola Davis, Doubt
Amy Adams, Doubt
I'm very, very torn on this last spot, which also seems like it could easily go to Benjamin Button's Taraji P. Henson or Rachel Getting Married's Rosemarie DeWitt. There's also the problem of Kate Winslet, whose vote-splitting between this and Revolutionary Road might keep her out of here entirely. But the above combination seems like the safest, even if a spoiler is really likely in this category.
Also possible Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Rosemarie DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married)
Best Actor
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Aside from Rourke and Penn, this is a tough category, and I'm relying on a lot of "this is who the Academy" likes guesses to fill out the rest. They like Clint Eastwood. They like people who play real people, which makes room for Frank Langella. And they like Leonardo DiCaprio (three past nominations) better than Brad Pitt (one past nomination), whose Benjamin Button role is in the mix for the fifth spot. Also lurking is Richard Jenkins, a character actor turned leading man who may sneak in there as well.
Also possible Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Like Best Actor, this category seemingly has two locks-- Streep and Hathaway-- and a whole bunch of other performances shoving their way into the top five. Winslet's double nominations seem more possible than ever, though I'd expect her to be knocked out here more likely than in supporting. And Sally Hawkins' divisive performance may not have been seen, or liked, well-enough to get in. Scott-Thomas is the longest shot of the bunch.
Also possible Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Melissa Leo (Frozen River), Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus van Sant, Milk
Darren Aronofsky, The Wrestler
Aronofsky fills the "lone director" slot here, but I can't really decide if he'll knock out Frost/Nixon's Ron Howard or Gus van Sant. It may be wishful thinking to keep van Sant over Opie, but I still feel good about subbing Aronofsky in there regardless.
Also possible Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), Stephen Daldry (The Reader), Andrew Stanton (Wall-E)
Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Dark Knight
Wall-E
I could tear out my hair predicting this category, given how nothing but Slumdog really and truly feels like a lock. The guilds have so consistently gone with five films-- all these, but replacing Wall-E with The Dark Knight-- that it's hard to predict anything else. But Wall-E was ineligible for both SAG and DGA, and has so much passionate support from so many, that it seems like it could sneak in there. It would be at the expense of The Dark Knight or Milk, unfortunately, but I'd still be thrilled to see any kind of surprise work its way in there.
Also possible Milk, The Wrestler, The Reader
