Virtually the entire Internet has chimed in with their Oscar predictions by now, which I guess makes me late to the party. But I've had all week to decide over and over again who will win these four acting awards, which except for the Supporting Actor category, are remarkably hard to peg. I can't even decide who I want to win these awards, much less who will win them. So these predictions are the best I can do for the moment, but I"ll be honest with you-- it's hard to know what's up at all, even this late in the game.
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Josh Brolin, Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Even though some of us would take pleasure in seeing a surprise here-- Robert Downey Jr. laconically strolling up to the stage-- this trophy has belonged to one man for over a year now. The only thing to wonder now is whether the statue will provide the closure moviegoers have been looking for.
And the winner is: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Viola Davis, Doubt
Amy Adams, Doubt
I'd really rather throw a dart at this category than have to pretend to make an educated guess here. Somewhat like last year's supporting actress category, the tides have been shifting throughout the whole season, and a last-minute shocker-- like Tilda Swinton last year-- could easily slip through. But as it is, I feel OK sticking with the obvious frontrunner, the Spanish sexpot who has more critical support than the rest, and also the distinction of being a bona fide movie star.
And the winner is: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Actor
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
A lot of people think you could decide this category with coin toss, as it seems to be pretty locked between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn. Others are suggesting that there's a third spoiler in there somewhere, kind of like when Adrien Brody snuck past Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis to snag Best Actor. But since there doesn't seem to be any consensus around a third "should win" candidate, Rourke and Penn are still the only choices. As much as I've enjoyed Mickey Rourke's comeback story, and his colorful presence in the awards circuit, I think Penn's unbeatable prestige and performance will win out. Rourke's acceptance speech would be one to treasure, though.
And the winner is: Sean Penn, Milk
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Despite all the possible scenarios cooked up by bored prognosticators, it's hard to see Kate Winslet not winning this one. She's the only one in the category with any momentum, is widely viewed as overdue for an award, and has pounded the pavement to promote The Reader like no other. There's a possible Streep victory in there, but I seriously doubt it.
And the winner is: Kate Winslet, The Reader
