That sneaky, wily Oscar race is actually starting to get a little less cloudy, with barely three months left to go before the big show. The Gurus of Gold, a conglomerate of some of the smartest Oscar predictors out there, have come up with a Best Picture list that features at least some consensus. There's even buzz floating around about nearly every single possible contender (except Gran Torino), with even the faintest hints of reviews for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button getting out there.
So even while critics still scramble to get their eyes on the December releases, the Oscar futures for many movies will be determined by audiences. Slumdog Millionaire has been pegged for a while as the likely audience favorite, and its $36,000 per-screen average for opening weekend indicates that could happen. And The Dark Knight, of course, is steaming in as the biggest movie of the year, and will likely win votes for it. But what other movies coming up could benefit from audience support, either a small movie or a less-than-great one that rises up above difficult, artier fare? Let's take a look at some of the bigger releases left to come out this season
Slumdog Millionaire: Audiences will likely love this rags-to-riches, exuberant story, but they'll have to get past subtitles and the depiction of searing poverty first. Danny Boyle, who has relentlessly made the publicity rounds, will only help things, as will bemused star Dev Patel.
Chances for audience love? Great.
Australia: It's one of the few movies that earns its 3-hour running time, but critics won't give it the enthusiastic praise it needs (I won't either, sadly, though I enjoyed it thoroughly). If there are any moviegoers left who are up for big, sweeping epics, they'll love this, but I have my doubts they'll show up.
Chances for audience love? Decent.
Milk: Yes, it's really, really gay. But it's also a terrific story, and a timely one, given its subject-- a politician who wants to give people hope, and a fight for gay rights in California. People who voted no on Proposition 8 will flock to this, and with them, hopefully an even larger audience will follow.
Chances for audience love? Pretty good.
Frost/Nixon: Ron Howard won't really be a factor here; his movie is entirely for adults who care about Richard Nixon, which makes the audience older if not smaller. The movie isn't alienating, but it might be hard to get people unfamiliar with the play to go to the theater.
Chances for audience love? Middling
Doubt: Pros: Meryl Streep and Amy Adams. Cons: Nuns. Lots and lots of nuns. LIke Frost/Nixon, it'll rely on an audience that saw the play, but the crossover appeal here is even more minimal.
Chances for audience love? Not great.
The Reader: The bigger Kate Winslet vehicle will come a few weeks later, but this Nazi story might get some attention with the saucy romance at the center. Plus, there's a lot of Kate Winslet nudity in the trailers, and that never hurts.
Chances for audience love? OK
Seven Pounds: Will Smith on the Fourth of July is a good bet, but he's pretty great in December too. People will definitely see this despite its weird and vague trailer; the bigger question is, once we know what this is about, will it still be in Oscar play?
Chances for audience love? Stellar.
The Wrestler: Fox Searchlight isn't giving this the same marketing attention-- at least not yet-- that it's lavishing on Slumdog Millionaire. If that changes, Darren Aronofsky's quiet downer has a real shot with audiences, particularly with the redemptive Mickey Rourke story behind it. But it needs all the help it can get; start the campaign now!
Chances for audience love? Great, with the right support.
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: If it's like Forrest Gump, as rumors have suggested, sure. But if it's up to David Fincher's usual par, and is as weird as it looks, it might have a tougher road ahead.
Chances for audience love? Pretty good.
Revolutionary Road: Leo and Kate! This movie will have huge interest from audiences outside of art-houses; whether it will get them to come beyond opening weekend remains a larger, and trickier, question.
Chances for audience love? Very good.
Last Chance Harvey: Audience support will be what propels this otherwise-minor film. I wasn't wild about it, but plenty of other people are; if it becomes a hit, we'll have to talk a lot more seriously about it come January.
Chances for audience love? Good.
Defiance: Ed Zwick movies (Blood Diamond, Glory) have always had much more success with audiences than critics, and have gotten Oscar nominations despite it. If Defiance repeats the pattern, it'll be the last late-breaking contender.
Chances for audience love? Better than most.
The audience question is the most interesting one for me at this point, having seen more than half of the above films; it's not so much what I think anymore, but what everyone else will say. I'm most excited about the performance of Milk and Australia in the next week, two movies I saw nearly back-to-back today, and both of which I'd happily recommend. It'll be fun the next couple of week as these things unspool, and the secrets critics have been holding about this or that moviegoing experience finally come out in the open.
Looking at the chart, I've added a few of my thoughts on some releases, and taken out some of the smaller ones-- sorry, Hunger and Che, but I don't see it happening for either of you Oscar-wise. The big chart with older releases has even more changes, but you'll have to seek that out here. Next week is Thanksgiving, so I'll try and share some new thoughts while preparing for the holiday with my Southern relatives-- I'm seeing Rachel Getting Married, Frozen River and The Reader in the meantime, so there will at least be plenty of girl power to talk about then. Gobble gobble!
