Every Oscar season you wait for something to come along and surprise you, whether it's a presumed frontrunner falling on its face-- a la Nine or Amelia in recent years-- or something nobody expected much from coming along and blowing everyone away. That second one is much rarer, because awards buzz is a carefully calibrated, analyzed thing, and by the time October comes around it's hard not to at least get a sense of what could be a big contender.
But I was genuinely surprised on Saturday when I caught the new James Bond film Skyfall and saw what I honestly believe could be an Oscar nominee (you can read my full write-up on it here). No Bond movie has has ever been nominated for Best Picture, and I'm not naive enough to assume that Skyfall can be the one to break the trend. But I think they should at least try, and certainly aim for some other nominations, including a campaign for Javier Bardem as the villain Silva or even Judi Dench as M, playing a bigger role in the franchise than ever before and hitting some remarkable emotional moments. There are also plenty of previous Oscar winners working behind the scenes who deserve attention, from Roger Deakins's jaw-dropping cinematography to Thomas Newman's playful, perfect score. Sam Mendes does terrific work as director, but Best Director is such a competitive category that I'm not even going to get my hopes up there.
I'm not the only person wild about Skyfall-- opening in less than two weeks in the UK, it's already got plenty of rave reviews, and lots of people saying it's not just good for a Bond film; it's just plain good. Everybody knows that good reviews never translate directly into awards nominations, specifically when they're raves for an action movie; Mendes has said he was inspired by Christopher Nolan's Batman movies on how to make a large-scale movie that matters, and Nolan's movies have fared famously poorly with Academy voters. But I do think Skyfall deserves consideration across the board this season, and when it opens and inevitably becomes a massive hit, the pieces may start coming together to make that happen.
I saw one other awards hopeful over the weekend, Robert Zemeckis's Flight, which closed the New York Film Festival on Sunday. It has exactly the powerhouse Denzel Washington performance we were hoping for, and ought to assure him a fifth nomination. The film itself is a little shakier, though very powerful in parts, and it doesn't have any other performances that really shine next to Denzel-- John Goodman racks up another performance, after Argo, that's terrific but too small to really stand out. I liked Flight a lot-- you can read my review here-- and it seems likely to have the same role in awards season that Cast Away did 12 years ago, with nominations for the lead actor and maybe something for the technical component. Regardless, it's good to have Robert Zemeckis back out of motion-capture filmmaking and making movies that star people again.
This week's new wide releases are pretty fallow for awards talk, with Paranormal Activity 4 and Alex Cross taking over, but Sundance hit The Sessions is coming out in limited release, and bringing with it even more talk about lead actors John Hawkes and Helen Hunt. There's also the surreal French film Holy Motors, which I adored and will hopefully have time to write about this week. It's got one of the year's best performances from Denis Levant, who plays 7 different characters over the course of the film. Don't expect to see it anywhere near the Academy Awards, but hopefully some other critics will be singing its praises by year's end.
Now, on to the charts, where my high hopes for Skyfall are duly reflected.
| BEST PICTURE |
I've kept in Flight as Still In The Running, because you never know how a serious adult drama can surprise you, and bumped Skyfall up to the same category, since I recognize it's a tough sell for a Bond movie as Best Picture. Argo is as close as they come to Mortal Lock, but it still seems a little soon for those kinds of bold pronouncements, so I'm holding off.
MORTAL LOCKNONE
LIKELY CONTENDERArgoBeasts of the Southern WildLife of PiLincolnSilver Linings Playbook
STILL IN THE RUNNINGAmourAnna KareninaDjango UnchainedFlightHitchcockThe ImpossibleLes MiserablesThe MasterMoonrise KingdomPromised LandSkyfallZero Dark Thirty
OUTSIDE CHANCEArbitrageThe AvengersBest Exotic Marigold HotelCloud AtlasEnd of WatchThe Hobbit: An Unexpected JourneyKilling Them SoftlyNot Fade AwayQuartetRust and BoneThe SessionsThis Is 40
| BEST DIRECTOR |
Robert Zemeckis has been bumped down to Outside Chance, since I don't think Flight will be quite that big, and this is a tough, tough year. Sam Mendes remains an Outside Chance as well.
MORTAL LOCKNONE
LIKELY CONTENDERBen Affleck, ArgoMichael Haneke, AmourDavid O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
STILL IN THE RUNNINGPaul Thomas Anderson, The MasterKathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark ThirtyTom Hooper, Les MiserablesAng Lee, Life of PiSteven Spielberg, LincolnQuentin Tarantino, Django UnchainedGus van Sant, Promised LandBenh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
OUTSIDE CHANCEWes Anderson, Moonrise KingdomJacques Audiard, Rust and BoneJuan Antonio Bayona, The ImpossibleSacha Gervasi, HitchcockPeter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected JourneySam Mendes, SkyfallAndy and Lana Wachowski and Tom Tykwer, Cloud AtlasJoe Wright, Anna KareninaRobert Zemeckis, Flight
| BEST ACTOR |
We've now got a full group of five Likely Contenders for Best Actor, with Washington getting the expected bump up and everyone else holding firm. While it feels like The Master is disappearing a month after its September release, it's far to early to count it out in the acting categories. And this week's release of The Sessions should keep John Hawkes firmly in the competition as well. Only when Hitchcock premieres at the AFI Fest in November-- and anyone finally gets a look at Les Miserables-- will we start seeing just how tough this competition will be.
MORTAL LOCKNONE
LIKELY CONTENDERBradley Cooper, Silver Linings PlaybookDaniel Day-Lewis, LincolnJohn Hawkes, The SessionsJoaquin Phoenix, The Master Denzel Washington, Flight
STILL IN THE RUNNINGMatt Damon, Promised LandAnthony Hopkins, HitchcockHugh Jackman, Les MiserablesJean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
OUTSIDE CHANCEBen Affleck, ArgoJack Black, BernieJamie Foxx, Django UnchainedRichard Gere, ArbitrageJake Gyllenhaal, End of WatchTommy Lee Jones, Hope SpringsTom Holland, The ImpossibleBill Murray, Hyde Park on HudsonLiam Neeson, The GreyBrad Pitt, Killing Them SoftlySuraj Sharma, Life of Pi
| BEST ACTRESS |
It seems that Fox Searchlight is still committed to campaigning Helen Hunt as Best Supporting Actress for The Sessions, but I think it's time to call bullshit and bump her up to lead. She's got a huge part in the movie and she's earning great reviews for it; the fact that she's a previous Best Actress winner ought to ensure people can see that way. I'm including Hunt as Best Actress until any other kinds of awards-giving bodies declare her as Supporting, and even then I might not budge-- after all, Kate Winslet was being campaigned as Supporting for The Reader and she won the whole damn Best Actress statue that year.
MORTAL LOCKNONE
LIKELY CONTENDERMarion Cotillard, Rust and BoneHelen Hunt, The SessionsJennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings PlaybookEmmanuelle Riva, AmourQuvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
STILL IN THE RUNNINGJudi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold HotelKeira Knightley, Anna KareninaNaomi Watts, The Impossible
OUTSIDE CHANCEHalle Berry, Cloud AtlasMelanie Lynskey, Hello I Must Be GoingHelen Mirren, HitchcockMeryl Streep, Hope SpringsBarbra Streisand, The Guilt TripRachel Weisz, The Deep Blue SeaMichelle Williams, Take This WaltzMary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR |
I've removed John Goodman for Flight, for the aforementioned reason that his part is fairly small, as well as the actors from Seven Psychopaths in light of that movie's small opening (and most of its praise being for director/writer Martin McDonagh). And Javier Bardem has been added in Still In The Running for Skyfall--he's still the movie's best shot at a nomination beyond the technical ones, but it's still likely to be a tough road.
MORTAL LOCKNONE
LIKELY CONTENDERAlan Arkin, ArgoRobert De Niro, Silver Linings PlaybookTommy Lee Jones, LincolnMatthew McConaughey, Magic MikePhilip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
STILL IN THE RUNNINGJavier Bardem, SkyfallRussell Crowe, Les MiserablesLeonardo DiCaprio, Django UnchainedJude Law, Anna KareninaEwan McGregor, The ImpossibleEzra Miller, The Perks of Being A WallflowerMichael Pena, End of WatchDavid Strathairn, Lincoln
OUTSIDE CHANCEJim Broadbent, Cloud AtlasBryan Cranston, ArgoTom Hanks, Cloud AtlasGarrett Hedlund, On the RoadDwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern WildJohn Krasinski, Promised LandWilliam H. Macy, The SessionsEddie Redmayne, Les MiserablesJim Sturgess, Cloud Atlas
| BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS |
With Helen Hunt presumably bumped up to Best Actress, who really knows what might happen here, with not a whole lot of heavyweights that we've seen so far. As with most years, there's a ton of potential for a surprise here. Who might jump in and run away with it all?
MORTAL LOCKNONE
LIKELY CONTENDERAmy Adams, The MasterAnne Hathaway, Les Miserables
STILL IN THE RUNNINGSamantha Barks, Les MiserablesJudi Dench, SkyfallSally Field, LincolnAmanda Seyfried, Les MiserablesMaggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold HotelKerry Washington, Django Unchained
OUTSIDE CHANCEJessica Chastain, Zero Dark ThirtyPauline Collins, QuartetSalma Hayek, SavagesFrances McDormand, Promised LandJacki Weaver, SIlver Linings Playbook
