I've come to realize that what I'm really hoping for in this race are some upsets. Yes, I've got money on the outcome, but it's significantly less satisfying to check off every box on your ballot than to stand up and gasp when a name is read out loud (that is, when you've only got $5 on the outcome, like I do). There are a few categories where I would cry foul if my favorites didn't win -- “Falling Slowly” from Once, Daniel Day-Lewis, Ratatouille (but only if it loses to Surf's Up). Otherwise, though? The I've come to realize that what I'm really hoping for in this race are some upsets. Yes, I've got money on the outcome, but it's significantly less satisfying to check off every box on your ballot than to stand up and gasp when a name is read out loud (that is, when you've only got $5 on the outcome, like I do). There are a few categories where I would cry foul if my favorites didn't win, fun is in the upsets. If Paul Thomas Anderson wins Best Director, good on him. And if Juno somehow wins Best Picture? OK, that would thrill me less, but the resulting outrage would be hilarious enough to keep me going for months.
It's been fun sharing my predictions here, the first time I've ever had to explain the reasons behind my Oscar bets other than “Children of Men was the best movie of 2006 and I'm voting for it in every category!” (FYI: that fangirl strategy never works) I hope there's plenty for us all to enjoy at tonight's ceremony, and after that, I will hope I don't have to think about the Oscars at all for another 8 months or so. It's been a long season, and above all, I'm tired.
The Nominees: Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
As No Country made its inevitable run through all the critics' and guild awards, the Coen brothers were right beside it. And given that this category also includes a first-time director (Gilroy), a guy no one expected to make it it here (Reitman), and an eccentric director whose movie did not make it in for Best Picture (Schnabel). The only other competition is Anderson, who's definitely gained respect over the last 10 years of his young career, but come on, the guy is 37. If he accomplished There Will be Blood before turning 40, Lord knows what'll happen when he's Sidney Lumet's age. Schnabel could possibly sneak in due to his beloved film and his strong personality, but come on. The Coens will finally have their day, and everybody knows it.
Will win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Dark hose: Paul Thomas Anderson
The Nominees: Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
From the moment I saw There Will Be Blood, I pronounced to my friend confidently, “There is no way No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood will both get Oscar nominations.” So, you see, my predictions aren't worth a damn. Each movie is so atypically Oscar, so violent and brutal and never condescending to the audience. This is the same Academy that wrapped its arms around A Beautiful Mind and Crash. But then again, they also loved The Departed, another movie full of violent men and ambiguous morals. So this is where we are with the Academy, possibly at the start of a new era, rewarding movies for a broader definition of quality than before. But when No Country for Old Men wins, it won't be because of some sea change in the Academy; it's an unstoppable tide of guild awards and critic's awards, coupled with the knowledge that the Coen brothers have been making amazing movies for 20 years, and now they've finally made it to the big show. Voting for something else is imaginable, but not really possible. There Will Be Blood is its nearest competition, but it's not really a contest at all. Somehow, my favorite movie of the year back in October has made it to the Oscar podium. This hasn't happened in 10 years, when I rooted for Titanic all the way to the big prize... but that's another story.
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Dark horse: There Will Be Blood
For all of Katey's Oscar Predictions, click here.
