Today might be our geekiest day of Oscar predicting. Not only are we coming up on my favorite category to guess, Best Cinematography, but we've got the one area in which movies with invented animal creatures or giant robots really have a chance. Yes, the Best Visual Effects category really is the best moment for film clips on Oscar night, isn't it? And since we're no longer living in the era of Lord of the Rings, other movies actually have a chance to win! And then we have best editing, which is one of the more un-definable categories (well, that and sound editing. vs. sound mixing), but is the only one that boasts a nominee who doesn't exist! See, now you're intrigued!
The nominees: Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Seamus McGarvey, Atonement
Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Le scaphandre et le papillon)
Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men
Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood
If you've seen each of these films, think back to the way they looked and tell me this isn't the most gorgeous set of nominees yet. Each of them features at least one jaw-dropping scene, whether it's the epic Dunkirk sequence in Atonement or the simple shot of a girl's hair blowing in the breeze in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. This is probably the category in which I'm most emotionally invested, having seen all the nominees and actively thought during each of them "Wow, I want this to get nominated." But let's look at reality. Roger Deakins is competing against himself, and if such a thing as vote-splitting didn't exist he'd just walk away with the statue on ground of general awesomeness. He'll likely get may more votes for No Country, given that it's the more popular and, for my money, better film. But his work in Jesse James was more lyrical and flat-out gorgeous, which might get him votes from people who thought the film was otherwise lacking. So, again, vote-splitting. Then there's Kaminski, a two-time winner who echoed Diving Bell's elegant script and direction with a visual language all his own. On the other hand, his movie is French, and not nominated for Best Picture. Robert Elswit and Seamus McGarvey's movies, on the other hand, are; Blood and Atonement are shot in completely different locations and employ very different camera styles, but both movies use cinematograph as a key storytelling element. How do you decide whether to reward a scene of an exploding oil derrick over a tour through an English country home? Beats me. Elswit won the Cinematographer's Guild award, even more significant given that the nominees matched up 100% with the Oscar nominees. So I'm going to call this one for him, as sad as it makes me that all five of these guys can't walk home with the award. One category in which the Academy got it totally right.
Will win: There Will Be Blood
Dark horse: No Country for Old Men
The Nominees: Best Visual Effects
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
This one's pretty simple. The Golden Compass? Even people who like bad movies hated that one. Plus, CGI animals? Yawn. Pirates of the Caribbean? Won it last year. Plus, nothing has been cooler than the pirates turning into skeletons in the moonlight. Which leaves us with Transformers, which gave the world giant effin' robots and made us love them.
Will win:Transformers
Dark horse:: Pirates of the Caribbean
The Nominees: Best Film Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum - Christopher Rouse
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Le scaphandre et le papillon) - Juliette Welfling
Into the Wild - Jay Cassidy
No Country for Old Men - Roderick Jaynes
There Will Be Blood - Dylan Tichenor
Like the best cinematography category, this is a case of deserving nominees all-around. Into the Wild's episodic travelogue, The Bourne Ultimatum's considerably crazier travelogue, and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly's jumps between the subconscious and reality all posed a major challenge to any editor, no matter how experienced. Then there's No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood, the reigning champs of Oscar season that would be nowhere without a steady hand at the editing table. Fun fact: No Best Picture nominee has ever won without a nomination for Best Editing; most times, in addition, the best edited film is also the best overall. So those of you rooting for Juno, Atonement or Michael Clayton might want to keep that in mind. And on top of all that, this category is the most fun because one of the nominees does not exist: Roderick Jaynes is a pseudonym used by the Coen Brothers, who have edited all of their movies. They've always been coy about Jaynes' identity, at one point telling a journalist that he's very old, in his 90's, and wouldn't be able to make it to the Oscar ceremony to pick up his award. The Academy has also confirmed that the Coens will only get one statue, with Jaynes' name engraved on it. Given the Coens' love for mistaken identities-- Lebowski, anyone?-- I can imagine they'd be thrilled with it. No Country lost the Editing Society award to The Bourne Ultimatum, but perhaps solely out of my desire to see an imaginary person win an Oscar, I'm sticking with Jaynes anyway. Go with Bourne if you want-- you might be right-- but you will miss out on being on the Figment of the Coens' Imagination Jaynes Train.
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Dark horse: The Bourne Ultimatum
