Hello, and welcome to Oscar season! Wait, you say, did the nominations go out yet? Well, no. Have the Golden Globes happened yet? Uh, no. But trust me, Oscar season has begun, awards are being handed out, and there are people all over the place trying to read the tea leaves to see what it all means. I’m less of a pundit here than a filter of information, having read enough of the blogs and the commentary to form an opinion or two of my own. So, let’s begin! It’s going to be a looong couple of months.
The last few days have produced enough new information and new awards to make an Oscar watcher’s mind explode. On Sunday alone the Los Angeles Film Critics, Boston Film Critics, D.C. Film Critics and New York Film Critics Online announced their winners for the year. Add this to last Tuesday’s announcement from the National Board of Review (NBR) and yesterday’s awards from the New York Film Critics Circle (not online), and predictions, speculation and sweeping pronouncements are flying all over the place. As in, there are people betting that, since Lars and the Real Girl was in the NBR’s top ten, it still has a shot at Best Picture.
Awards Daily, which has stellar coverage all-around, has comprehensive lists of all the awards so far. They’re spread far and wide, with Ben Affleck getting some Best New Filmmaker love here and there for Gone Baby Gone, Sidney Lumet winning a lifetime achievement award or two, and even a totally out-of-left-field Best Supporting Actor nod from Los Angeles for a guy named Vlad who played a rapist/abortionist in a Romanian movie. Still, despite all the weirdness going on, there are some trends.
No Country for Old Men was the biggest winner overall, getting Best Picture awards from New York, D.C., Boston, and the National Board of Review. This isn’t so shocking: No Country is the best-reviewed movie of the year that doesn’t involve a rat learning to cook, and for my money it’s the best movie made in years, period. It makes sense for the critics to pay attention to the Coens’ masterpiece. Right behind No Country, though, is Paul Thomas Anderson’s There Will Be Blood, which is where it really starts to get strange. The movie isn’t out yet and has barely been officially reviewed, but even the critics have said “It is flawed and dark and a little hard to understand and basically makes us hate humanity.” Critics loooove handing out awards to movies that will never, ever win an Oscar, though, and L.A. and the online New Yorkers pretty much shouted “Suck it, mainstream!” and dove with it into the breach.
The other movie that came out strongest from all this was The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which was right behind There Will Be Blood and picked up a number of nods for cinematographer Janusz Kaminski. It’s in French, yes, and it’s quite arty, but it’s also an amazing, true story with an uplifting message. We all know the Oscar formula favors stories about people overcoming handicaps, and it’s hard to imagine a greater handicap than being completely paralyzed except for your left eye. Compared to testosterone-heavy bloodfests like No Country and Blood, Diving Bell is a sensitive love-letter to the human race, though it entirely avoids schmaltz and sentimentality. It’s hard to feel too optimistic about the chances of a foreign art film, but Diving Bell’s shot at the big game is looking better than ever.
Now brace yourselves: I won’t guarantee that all or any of these will be in the Best Picture race. The notable snubs from these critical races are likely still the ones to watch, thanks to the hurdles I mentioned above. Looming largest is Atonement, which opened this weekend to glowing reviews (despite prominent pans) and practically spells Oscar: doomed romance, period drama, gorgeous cinematography, attractive young stars. Some have compared the race to 1996, when it was the Coens’ Fargo versus sweeping epic The English Patient. That still doesn’t seem like a bad assessment. Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere tried to argue that if the critics didn’t go for it, Atonement could be dead in the water. I still say it’s got what the Oscar voters will eat up. Same goes for Sweeney Todd, which got a nod for Tim Burton as Best Director from the NBR but went MIA everywhere else. It’s a musical based on a hugely successful stage play, and despite its buckets of blood it has wide appeal. Don’t rule it out. Same goes for Juno, American Gangster, Michael Clayton, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead... you get the picture. It’s practically a demolition derby out there.
The biggest surprise in the acting categories was Amy Ryan, who nearly swept the Best Supporting Actress awards for her part as a drug addict, white trash, worst-mom-in-the-world in Gone Baby Gone. Cate Blanchett had been considered the front-runner until about five minutes ago for her work in I’m Not There, and she got a nod from the online New Yorkers, but that’s it. Wow. Given that I’m Not There has been absent from pretty much every critical award, Ryan really might’ve overtaken Blanchett here, coming completely out of nowhere. Today, after I go to print here, come the nominations for the Broadcast Critics Award, which often hold more clues to the Oscar race than the specific cities’ critics. On Thursday, though, are the big guns: The Golden Globes. We’ll see how those two match upand what they indicate next week. This week will also likely feature a slew of top 10 lists; Jeffrey Wells did his earlier, and we here at Cinema Blend will be culling one together soon enough. Top ten lists may have about as much effect as critics’ circle awards on the actual Oscar nominees, but they bring attention to movies that might have otherwise been overlooked. Count on anticipation for Blood ratcheting up even more than before, and for Amy Ryan’s star to just keep on rising.
The best part about all of this for me is that, even though I’ve hitched my wagon to No Country’s star, I’m thrilled with all of these choices. It’s been a great year for movies by any yardstick, and I’m optimistic about there not being a situation like last year, when the brilliant Children of Men got overlooked in favor of hamfisted Babel. And let’s not even get into Crash. So far I’ve seen nothing but worthy films get the attention they deserve, and if that trend continues, it can be a happy Oscar season for us all.
