So, here we are. It’s a chilly holiday Monday here in New York, everyone’s who’s anyone involved with film in this city is out in Utah, but I’m sitting here shuffling a list of names back and forth, trying to match it with a list that will be put out in less than 24 hours. Yes, after all these weeks of following nominations and guild awards and all rest, I’ve now realized I actually have no idea who will get nominated for a damn thing. And yet, last week I promised I’d do predictions. Invisible readership, you’d better be grateful!
In truth, I do have some idea what names and titles will be read out tomorrow, but I’m totally prepared to be wrong, wrong, wrong. Over at Awards Daily, which as always is the ultimate source for Oscar hand-wringing, a commenter posited a scenario in which the Best Picture nominees were something like Hairspray, 3:10 to Yuma, American Gangster, The Kite Runner, Charlie Wilson’s War, a.k.a every movie that everyone had left for dead months ago. While I don’t actually expect that to happen, I’ll happily laugh along with everyone else if it does. I’m not championing an underdog this year, hoping against hope that something that’s been ignored so far will make it into Oscar consideration; as I’ve said before, my pony is No Country for Old Men, which is pretty much the only movie everyone expects to make it in for Best Picture. For all the rest, it could be an ugly morning tomorrow.
So I’m making bets based on these predictions, but I wouldn’t recommend anyone else do so. As I’ve said before I’m more of a filter of information than a prognosticator myself, and these predictions are based as much on what everyone else is saying as personal instinct. Below are nominations for the big six categories, along with a little bit of reasoning. I’ll catch up with you tomorrow afternoon, after the chips have fallen where they may.
BEST PICTURE
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
Into the Wild
Atonement
For the first three: guild support nearly across the board, plus Director’s Guild nominations for the directors, which often predicts Best Picture nominations. For the fourth, passionate support among its admirers, an actor who everyone loves (Sean Penn) turned in a competent director, and a star-making turn by a young actor (Emile Hirsch). For the fifth, a remaining faith that, despite almost no guild attention, the Academy loves its epic romances. Also possible: Juno, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, American Gangster
BEST DIRECTOR
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joe Wright, Atonement
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
The Coens have been considered locks from the outset, and I still think they’ll take it. The massive success of Blood means that Anderson can finally get real consideration rather than just being a talented wunderkind. Schnabel’s movie has been rising in buzz in the last few weeks, and while I don’t think it can pull off a Picture nod, he seems in good shape. Penn, as mentioned, is a beloved actor-turned-director, and will probably find a spot here. Wright is the iffiest bet, and he could just as likely be replaced by Tony Gilroy (who got a DGA nom for Michael Clayton), Sidney Lumet (Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead) or hell, even Ridley Scott, despite the fact that American Gangster seems mostly DOA. Still, I’m counting on some Atonement support to get Wright in there.
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
This might be the category I feel most confident about. The first three have both successful films and respected careers to buoy them up, though Day-Lewis is by far the leader of the pack. Mortensen has gotten some attention lately thanks to a Golden Globe nomination and SAG nomination; I think he’s in. And Hirsch, as mentioned earlier, is a young man making a breakout performance, which always gets attention. He, Ryan Gosling and James McAvoy all seem to be fighting for the same “young man ingenue” spot, but as the youngest with the most screen time, Hirsch will win out.
BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Keira Knightley, Atonement
Amy Adams, Enchanted
When it comes to the last two in this category, I figure I’ll go big or go home. The top three are dead locks; Christie and Cotillard have been duking it out in the precursors every step of the way, and Juno has gotten so much attention for Page, the youngest pretty face of the bunch, that she’s in. The last two spots have been up in the air for ages; Knightley and Adams could easily be replaced by Cate Blanchett, Angelina Jolie, Laura Linney or even Jodie Foster for The Brave One, a movie that was critically reviled. Still, I’m counting on Atonement support for Knightley, and Enchanted’s major box office power to swing in Adams, who also made a nice appearance in the nice-but-not-great Charlie Wilson’s War. If those last two are totally different tomorrow morning, you’ve been warned.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
This category has also seemed locked up for ages, with those five names showing up all over. Lately, though, some have been arguing that Hoffman might be replaced by Max von Sydow of The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Tommy Lee Jones of No Country for Old Men or Paul Dano of There Will Be Blood. I say, nah, the only Oscar winner in the bunch will pull out another nomination. Bardem, Holbrook and Wilkinson all have big movies behind them, and are the most frequent precursor nominees. I’m almost surprised to be including Affleck here, since Jesse James has gotten virtually no other attention, but he’s gotten plenty of precursor attention and should make it in, especially given that he gave another great performance in Gone Baby Gone. And speaking of that movie...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Saiorsie Ronan, Atonement
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Amy and Cate, Amy and Cate. It was looking like Cate Blanchett’s award to lose until Ryan all of a sudden started snatching up critics’ awards right and left. Blanchett still took the Globe, but the race is tight between the two. Swinton’s name has also shown up all over the place, as has Keener’s, surprisingly enough; I never thought I would include her here, but the other competition, including the two other Brionys from Atonement and Ruby Dee of American Gangster don’t seem to have what it takes to make it through to the end. As for Ronan, our first Briony, she hasn’t gotten the kind of love she deserves, but I think a young superstar will find room on Oscar night.
