Guys, I wish I could be kidding when I tell you that this is the week I've been waiting for all year. For months I've dedicated myself to the Oscar race, mostly because I love a good competition and March Madness hasn't started yet. There's the insanity of the early race, when you read the tea leaves of the critics' awards and think to yourself “Can The Bucket List win Best Picture? What's this Juno movie all about?” Then the nominations go out, and there's a kind of disappointment; you can no longer say that anything is possible, and the race is set in stone. But then you get to this period, just before the ceremony, where the pundits and prognosticators get restless and go a little crazy. That's how in the last week people who were considered total no-hopes, like Tilda Swinton in the Supporting Actress category or Tony Gilroy for Best Original Screenplay, get some buzz.
So here we are, a week before the Oscars, and everyone out there is still flip-flopping on who will win every single award. But it's time to start setting my predictions down in stone. Starting today and leading up to the big night, I'll be putting down my predictions, including all the information and insider talk out there that leads me to think the way I do. We'll start with the small awards, but I'm skipping the shorts because, well, it's such a crapshoot and no one knows what they're talking about anyway. By Saturday, though, we'll be talking the big guns, Picture and Director and the like. But hey, in your Oscar pool, don't you need the most help on how to predict the sound mixing award? Thank goodness, Cinema Blend is here to help.
The Nominees: Original Song
“Falling Slowly,” from Once
“Raise It Up,” from August Rush
“Happy Working Song,” from Enchanted
“That's How You Know,” from Enchanted
“So Close,” from Enchanted
There are so many mysteries in this category, from the snub of Eddie Vedder's songs from Into the Wild to the very fact that August Rush made it in here to begin with. Plus, the three songs from Enchanted are a bit of overkill, especially since “So Close” is an entirely forgettable romance ballad, and “True Love's Kiss” was ignored in its favor. The two remaining Enchanted songs may cancel each other out, which will leave room for the sentimental favorite, “Falling Slowly” from Once. Fox Searchlight has done an amazing job marketing this little, wonderful movie,and the story behind it-- actor-songwriters Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova were actually falling in love as they performed this song in the movie-- is irresistible. It seems impossible to me that anyone who hears this song could vote against it, so even though it's up against four heavyweights, I think the heartfelt ballad can win out in the end.
Will win: “Falling Slowly”
Dark horse: “That's How You Know”
The Nominees: Original Score
Dario Marianelli, Atonement
Michael Giacchino, Ratatouille
Alberto Iglesias, The Kite Runner
James Newton Howard, Michael Clayton
Marco Beltrami, 3:10 to Yuma
This was one of those categories haunted by a nomination scandal, with Jonny Greenwood's stellar score for There Will Be Blood, disqualified at the last minute. So given that the obvious frontrunner is out of the race, it's a more interesting category. Let's ignore The Kite Runner and 3:10 to Yuma, since those movies have been non-starters in other categories. Atonement's score is the most noticeable, with the clacking typewriter keys and the lush romantic orchestra underscoring all that romance and despair. Michael Giacchino's Ratatouille score might be the most clever, though, the combination of overdone animated score with all the classic French music. And James Newton Howard is a guy who's been all over the place this year, writing the music for three other releases in December alone (Charlie Wilson's War, I Am Legend and The Great Debaters). So could he get rewarded for an overall body of work this year? Probably not, given that no one really comes out of Michael Clayton raving about the score. That honor belongs to Marianelli, whose impressively layered score seems like one of the best contenders for the much-nominated but not much-loved Atonement.
Will win: Antonio Marianelli for Atonement
Dark horse: Michael Giacchino for Ratatouille
The Nominees: Sound Editing
No Country for Old Men
The Bourne Ultimatum
There Will Be Blood
Ratatouille
The Nominees: Sound Mixing
No Country for Old Men
Transformers
The Bourne Ultimatum
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
I've gotta admit, we're hitting my weak spot in the technical awards-- and I don't think I'm alone here. The usual rule of thumb for sound awards is that the loudest movie wins, which would make Transformers the front-runner by a long shot. But last night No Country for Old Men walked home with the Cinema Audio Society award, which might mean that the juggernaut for Best Picture could sweep in on the technical awards as well. It's a much quieter movie than any of its competition, but is pretty damn impressive with its windswept plains and tense moments before the violence begins. Transformers sound guy Kevin O'Connell is a sentimental favorite, having lost the Oscar 17 times before, but it's hard to know if that will be enough. Given that there are two sound awards though, there might be room to reward the long-deserving winner and the overall frontrunner at the same time. That said, my picks are a little arbitrary. Anything (except maybe 3:10 to Yuma) could sweep in and not surprise me at all.
Will win: Transformers for editing, No Country for mixing.
Dark horse: Anything at all, though Bourne and Ratatouille seem most likely.
OK, that's it for now! Tomorrow we get into what I'm not ashamed to call the girly categories: Makeup, Costume Design, and Art Direction. Yay, pretty things!
