These two categories are kind of the opposites of each other, and define everything that's both boring and insane about Sunday's ceremony. For supporting actors, you have a group that has been essentially unchanged since the very beginning, and a winner who has not lost a single statue since way back in December. But for supporting actresses, it's a complete and utter toss-up. Any one of the five nominees could go home with a statue without anyone really being able to claim it's an upset. In a long and bumpy season that's had a guaranteed Best Picture winner for months, it's kind of nice that there's still some room for speculation in this world. Not to say that'll make it any easier to win the office Oscar pool.
The Nominees: Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Despite being the category with probably the most talent per square foot, this is that other acting category where the winner is a foregone conclusion. Javier Bardem tore up the screen in No Country for Old Men, and maybe it’s because he’s playing a stone cold killer, but no one dares vote against him. The biggest threats are likely Hal Holbrook, garnering the “lifetime of great work” vote, and Tom Wilkinson, garnering the “batshit insane character” vote. Neither is likely to make a dent in Javier’s huge amount of support. You can’t stop what’s comin’.
Will win: Javier Bardem
Dark horse: Hal Holbrook
The Nominees: Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Sigh… the dreaded moment when I have to make up my damn mind on this category. I have gone back and forth so many times, all the while holding the fervent hope that Saoirsie Ronan will somehow win, even though she’s the only nominee anyone can rule out. Cate Blanchett: the frontrunner forever for her turn as Bob Dylan, but Amy Ryan ran away with half the critical awards, and some think Blanchett’s impact is dulled by the fact that she also got a Best Actress nod (more on that later). Ruby Dee: a beloved veteran who has never been nominated, who got a surprise win at the SAG Awards, but her role is small (about five minutes of screen time) and many believe there was better work out there. Amy Ryan: a no-good coked out mom in a movie not many people saw, a critical darling but with waning buzz in recent weeks. And Tilda Swinton: part of a crackerjack ensemble in a quietly beloved movie, in the one category where many members may feel safest rewarding Michael Clayton. After waffling forever, I’m finally sticking with Swinton. I’m convinced not enough people saw Blanchett’s role, not enough people thought Dee’s part was big enough, and that Ryan will not be as beloved by the stolid Academy as she was by critics. I am totally, completely prepared to be wrong here. Take this prediction for what you will.
Will win: Tilda Swinton
Dark horse: Cate Blanchett
