After last weekend's bloodbath, we knew Pan was going to be a let down at the box office. However, we didn't think it was going to be this bad, as the numbers are starting to add up, and the fallout is spelling that the film could be the most expensive flop of this year.
The Hollywood Reporter has been going over the data from Joe Wright's disastrous fairy tale for the modern child, and failure doesn't even begin to cover how big the impact crater will be when the fairy dust settles. THR quickly ran down the numbers, and the film's $150 million budget was only part of the problems that the film ran into when it didn't bring the crowds it anticipated this past weekend. So how much is Pan standing to lose at the box office, and what's specifically to blame? The below statement from THR will give you the sticker shock you're looking for, as the following makes up their conclusive narrative:
The range of $130 million to $150 million accounts for the fact that analysts don't know exactly how much Warners spent on marketing, or exactly where Pan will end up at the box office.
Without a definitive marketing figure in the pipeline, it's hard to nail down which end of the spectrum Pan will come out on. What we do know is that estimates have the global advertising spend set at $125 million, and part of that spend was from 2014 into this year. Of course, the moment the film was delayed from its original July release date into an October launch, the figure was obviously prolonged along with the release date.
What's interesting is that if the numbers wind up on the worse end, Pan will officially be one of the biggest flops of 2015 so far. It might even take the crown from Disney's Tomorrowland, though Warner Bros is without films like Star Wars: The Force Awakens to offset the damage. For comparison, Tomorrowland was made on a $190 million budget, with a estimated $150 million marketing budget and a worldwide gross of $208 million. The estimated hole for Tomorrowland is now at a square $132 million, and may still hold the record if Pan can pull off one last miracle.
The Hail Mary pass for Pan to become a success lies in China, which doesn't see the release of Pan for another 11 days. Still, the odds aren't very good, considering that the film only racked up a total of $40.5 million globally. Should the film, at the very least, maintain those numbers in its second weekend of release, it would need to make a further $185 million to reach the total $275 million that the film is estimated to have cost. Looks like Warner Bros is going to have to start thinking some really happy thoughts to make this turkey fly.
Here's hoping that Warner Bros can strike some sort of gold with one of their future releases this fall, as Creed and In The Heart Of The Sea are the next two big ticket films that the studio will be releasing this year. Until then, you can see Pan which is currently in theaters. It needs all the help it can get.
