Now that we are getting into December, the Awards Race begins to take a clearer shape. Every year, around this time, top critical organizations begin to recognize the best in cinema, and when we start to hear the same titles repeated by various film groups, we in the media can start to determine frontrunners, as well as also-rans.
To that end, recent wins for Damien Chazelle's La La Land and Barry Jenkins' Moonlight from the top critics' groups in New York and Los Angeles helped propel those movies into Frontrunner categories in several top races. As was pointed out, Jenkins has claimed a Best Director trophy from pretty much every group that has tried to hand one out, including the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and the National Board of Review. Can one of these films peak too soon? That has happened in the past, where backlash against a presumed "Winner" settled in, prompting Academy voters to push their weight behind another film. There's still a LOT of time to go, with a few more shoes to drop before this competition is squared away.
The Critics' Choice Awards happen much earlier this year, airing on Sunday, December 11 instead of their usual January slot. That could give some valuable momentum to one of the following movies, or take some air out of a tentative campaign or two. For the moment, here's where I think everyone stands:
Best Picture
The Frontrunners
La La Land
Moonlight
The Contenders
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Jackie
Lion
Loving
Patriots Day
Sully
The Dark Horses
20th Century Women
The Founder
Nocturnal Animals
Silence
The Longshots
Allied
The Birth of a Nation
Live By Night
A Monster Calls
Best Director
The Frontrunners
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
The Contenders
Clint Eastwood, Sully
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Pablo Larrain, Jackie
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Martin Scorsese, Silence
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Denzel Washington, Fences
The Dark Horses
J.A. Bayona, A Monster Calls
Garth Davis, Lion
Jeff Nichols, Loving
Robert Zemeckis, Allied
The Longshots
Ben Affleck, Live By Night
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water
Morten Tyldum, Passengers
Best Actor
The Frontrunners
Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
Denzel Washington, Fences
The Contenders
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Silence
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Tom Hanks, Sully
Michael Keaton, The Founder
The Dark Horses
Ben Affleck, Live By Night
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Lewis MacDougall, A Monster Calls
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Miles Teller, Bleed for This
The Longshots
Ethan Hawke, Born to be Blue
Logan Lerman, Indignation
Matthew McConaughey, Gold
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actress
The Frontrunners
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
The Contenders
Amy Adams, Arrival
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
The Dark Horses
Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Rebecca Hall, Christine
The Longshots
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Susan Sarandon, The Meddler
Best Supporting Actor
The Frontrunners
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
The Contenders
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures
Ralph Fiennes, A Bigger Splash
Ben Foster, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester By The Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
The Dark Horses
Adam Driver, Silence
Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
Aaron Eckhart, Sully
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Liam Neeson, Silence
Issey Ogata, Silence
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Mykelti Williamson, Fences
The Longshots
Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky
Jeremy Renner, Arrival
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
Best Supporting Actress
The Frontrunners
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
The Contenders
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Margot Martindale, The Hollars
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea
The Dark Horses
Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
Sienna Miller, Live By Night
Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures
The Longshots
Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky
Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe
