The Oscar race is a marathon, not a sprint. And along the way, there are mile markers that tend to point in the direction of the final Academy Awards outcome. While we're nowhere near ready to declare the race over -- or to even nominate a clear-cut frontrunner -- the Screen Actors Guild awards winners can go a long way to pointing out who's likely to take home an Oscar when the 2017-18 campaign draws to a close.
When you start to hear the same names revealed over and over at ceremonies like the Golden Globes, the Critics' Choice Awards and the SAGs, you begin to conclude that these same names will triumph at the Oscars. If that's the case, then your current Best Actor and Actress frontrunners appear to be Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour and Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. McDormand's co-star, Sam Rockwell, has been cleaning up on the path for Best Supporting Actor nods. And Allison Janney is parlaying her venomous turn as Tonya Harding's stage mom into awards gold for I, Tonya. Let's break down the key awards each has won up to this point:
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Critics' Choice: Best Actor
Golden Globes: Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
SAG: Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Dallas-Ft. Worth Film Critics: Best Actor
Iowa Film Critics: Best Actor
Nevada Film Critics: Best Actor
New York Film Critics Online: Best Actor
NC Film Critics: Best Actor
Oklahoma Film Critics: Best Actor
Online Film Critics Society: Best Actor
Southeastern Film Critics: Best Actor
St. Louis Film Critics: Best Actor
Washington D.C. Film Critics: Best Actor
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Critics' Choice: Best Actress
Golden Globes: Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
SAG: Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Detroit Film Critics: Best Actress
Las Vegas Film Critics: Best Actress
St. Louis Film Critics' Association: Best Actress
Toronto Film Critics' Association: Best Actress
Washington D.C. Film Critics' Association: Best Actress
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Critics' Choice: Best Supporting Actor
Golden Globes: Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Southeastern Film Critics: Best Supporting Actor
Online Film Critics Society: Best Supporting Actor
Dallas-Ft. Worth Film Critics: Best Supporting Actor
Florida Film Critics: Best Supporting Actor
Houston Film Critics: Best Supporting Actor
Las Vegas Film Critics: Best Supporting Actor
San Diego Film Critics: Best Supporting Actor
Washington D.C. Film Critics' Association: Best Supporting Actor
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Critics' Choice: Best Supporting Actress
Golden Globes: Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
SAG: Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Dallas-Ft. Worth Film Critics: Best Supporting Actress
Detroit Film Critics: Best Supporting Actress
Florida Film Critics: Best Supporting Actress
Houston Film Critics: Best Supporting Actress
Nevada Film Critics: Best Supporting Actress
New York Film Critics Online: Best Supporting Actress
Philadelphia Film Critics: Best Supporting Actress
Phoenix Film Critics: Best Supporting Actress
San Diego Film Critics: Best Supporting Actress
As you can see, the SAG winners from Sunday fit into a pattern, and we expect all four to be named as Oscar nominees when those are announced on Tuesday morning. Will that make them frontrunners? Right now, because no one else has consistently stepped up and interfered with their clear path to victory, I'd say that they are close to being the Oscar winners we expect to hear on March 4. But a lot can happen between now and then, as final Oscar ballots aren't even due for another month.
Still, I'd feel better throwing some more weight behind a Shape of Water or The Post upset if Sally Hawkins, Tom Hanks, Meryl Streep or Richard Jenkins had surprised us with a one-off victory at one of these precursor awards programs. But right now, we are hearing the same four names. Will we hear all four of them again on March 4 at the Oscars? Or are one of these four vulnerable to an upset? Let us know in the comments.
