With The Lion King coming to devour every screen in sight, this may be Avengers: Endgame's last serious shot at defeating Avatar.
I know some of you don't care. We've talked about this. For the many others who do, here's where we stand during Avengers: Endgame's third re-release weekend.
Avengers: EndgameWorldwide: $2,780,800,139AvatarWorldwide: $2,787,965,087
Those figures now include what Avengers: Endgame made this weekend at the July 12-14 box office. So Endgame needs about $8 million at this point. Robert Downey Jr. could fund that himself with pocket change, but that's not how this works.
Like the struggle to drop those last 15 pounds, the struggle is real for Endgame's last few millions, and it just got tougher. Avengers 4 played in 1,985 theaters this past week, but Forbes reports it lost 542 theaters this weekend, a 27% drop. That still leaves it 1,443 theaters, which isn't bad. But how many do you think it will be left with after The Lion King shows up? Realistically, if there's a shot, Avengers: Endgame needs to take it this weekend.
Box Office Mojo said Avengers: Endgame will make $1.7 million at the domestic box office this weekend, from its 1,443 theaters. That helped, but it's not enough. Overseas, it's drips and drabs as well. We can't count on China to do more than it has already done with nearly $615 million. It's not showing Endgame anymore, so the second-largest market in the world after us is out.
If Avengers: Endgame could keep making $2 million a weekend, it could slowly reach Avatar by September. But that's looking less realistic as new movies come to push it out. Release it one more time over Labor Day weekend, Marvel!
This weekend, Avengers: Endgame's little brother Spider-Man: Far From Home is set to top the box office charts for its second weekend in a row. Toy Story 4 is expected to follow. Both of those movies are now playing in over 4,000 theaters. The Lion King is unquestionably going to take #1 next weekend, after it arrives on July 19. Some of the smaller movies are going to get pushed out. Endgame is not a smaller movie, and there's certainly no reason to feel sorry for it, but if it has any screens left next weekend, they will be few.
Many still think the odds are against Avengers: Endgame topping Avatar for worldwide un-adjusted gross. I think we can still do it, but for full disclosure I'm also delusional.
At the very least, Avengers: Endgame just passed $850 million at the domestic box office alone. That's impressive. It's not a major milestone on its own, but it's a nice-looking number. It's way ahead of Avatar's $760.5M domestic from 2009, but also way behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens' $936.6 million. Endgame won't be moving in either direction, which is why this conversation has always been about worldwide gross, not domestic.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens owns the domestic title. I'm curious if that will ever be toppled. Wouldn't it be funny if The Lion King did it? I doubt it, but that would be quite a summer.
