Wait! Coal Is Reducing Chinese Life Expectancy By How Many Years?

Burning coal is not particularly good for the environment or for the life expectancy of human beings. We’ve known these basic facts for a long time, but because the world is filled with so many variables, it’s been very difficult for scientists to determine exactly how bad the fossil fuel is, at least until now. Thanks to a seemingly arbitrary budget policy in China, researchers have figured out a way to measure the effect of heavy coal usage on number of years lived, and the results are even more glaring than many of coal’s most hardened critics may have guessed. The 500 million residents of Northern China have collectively lost more than 2.5 billion years of shared life expectancy, or a little less than 5.5 years for every man, woman and child.

The policy in question began back in the 1950s. The Chinese government decided to give all residents north of the Huai River free coal boilers in order to heat their homes during the winter. Because migration hasn’t been a huge issue in China in the time since, life expectancies of those living in each region can be tracked pretty rigorously. In addition, a team featuring researchers from China, Israel and the United States measured the air quality north and south of the river every year since 1981. Ultimately, what they discovered was a concentration of total suspended particles, or TSPs, at levels 55% higher in Northern China and life expectancies of about 5.5 years lower than in Southern China.

An incredible amount of work, and more specifically math, was done in order to factor out alterations in life expectancy related to non pollution causes, and after years and years of slavish analysis, the brilliant minds involved in the study felt good enough to publish their research. Where it goes from here, however, is completely up in the air. The Chinese government has long advocated coal as a great mechanism to grow the economy, and comprehensive studies have not really been done prior to this in order to try and force anyone’s hand. Maybe this will change everything. Maybe this will change nothing, but in the past, the government has often favored surprise rigid action or completely inaction versus casually taking the middle ground, though it should be noted China did try to deal somewhat with air pollution for the Beijing Olympics.

If every decision made by world governments was designed to make society as safe as possible, forward progress would never happen. Life is one long series of tradeoffs. We can now travel miles and miles in a single day, but because of it, a lot of people lose their lives in auto accidents every year. As such, the solution for China is probably not to give up coal immediately, as that would drag the economy to a halt but instead to actively work on lessening the amount of coal used with a hybrid of multiple kinds of power.

We’ll let you know if the Chinese government speaks publically on these findings. In the time being, I wouldn’t hold my breath.