Movie sequels are a near certainty for theatrically released films. If a movie is a massive box office hit, the discussion of a sequel is nearly inevitable. However, sequels are much less than a sure thing when it comes to movies released for streaming. If a movie starring Dwayne Johnson, Ryan Reynolds, and Gal Gadot had been a box office smash it feels like a sequel would be here already, but the sequel to Red Notice that we've been told is in discussions is still in limbo. And we just got a clearer picture why that is.
Back in 2021, Red Notice became the most-watched movie in the history of Netflix and according to a new piece in Bloomberg, that’s still the case. It’s not surprising why that is. The movie had the biggest cast of any Netflix movie to date, it was a big action comedy that looked, at least from a budget standpoint, like any similar movie we might have seen in theaters. And it’s that budget specifically in regard to the Red Notice cast, which may be the reason we have yet to see Red Notice 2.
Red Notice’s Three Stars Made A Lot Of Money
According to the Bloomberg piece, Red Notice cost something around $200 million to produce, and $80 million of that was the salaries of Johnson, Reynolds, and Gadot alone. It’s suggested that this is one of the major roadblocks to Red Notice 2. The cost of getting the three stars back would probably be around $100 million for a sequel, so a budget of $250 million for the film is likely.
If Red Notice was opening in theaters and was expected to make $750 million at the box office, that budget might be something a studio would be willing to swallow, but as the economics of streaming are significantly different the math doesn’t add up quite the same way.
How Red Notice 2 Could Still Happen
Back in 2022, it was reported that Netflix was looking at filming two Red Notice sequels back-to-back. While nothing has come of that (at least not yet), it’s possible that was part of a plan to help reduce the cost of production. Making two movies together is a bit cheaper than making them separately, most noticeably, you can likely get your stars at a bit of a discount if they’re essentially making one big rather than two regular ones.
There is also talk of streamers going to a new model to pay talent that is similar to what stars get on theatrical releases. It’s not uncommon for actors to get paid a smaller amount up front, with back-end payments on offer if a movie is a hit. The biggest stars can often make even more money this way, the way Tom Cruise cashed in huge when Top Gun: Maverick became a smash, but studios save money when movies aren’t moneymakers.
While critics didn't love Red Notice, audiences did, so it seems clear that many people would watch a sequel. Whether they get a chance, however, is another story entirely.
