We’re coming up on five years since Jason Momoa’s Aquaman last had the limelight for himself, although we haven’t been entirely devoid of the character during that period thanks to Zack Snyder’s Justice League, the Peacemaker Season 1 finale and The Flash (all of which can be streamed with a Max subscription). Still, the time is nearly here for this take on Aquaman to finally step back onto center stage with one of the final 2023 movie releases, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. However, the opening weekend estimates for this upcoming DC movie are in, and it’s not looking good for the Momoa-fronted sequel.
As shared by THR, the National Research Group is tracking the soon-to-arrive Aquaman 2 to open somewhere between $36-$44 million domestically during its four-day holiday weekend, with $40 million looking especially likely. Warner Bros. Pictures, on the other hand, believes its second-to-last movie of the year (the final one being The Color Purple) will collect $50 million or more during its first days playing in theaters, which caps off with Christmas Day.
Either way, this is a far cry from the $86.7 million that Aquaman took in during its holiday opening weekend back in 2018, which included Christmas Eve. To be sure, The Lost Kingdom does look like it will be the biggest movie at the holiday box office, though it is facing opening weekend competition like Illumination’s Migration, Sony Pictures’ Anyone But You and A24’s The Iron Claw. Still, judging off these early estimates, it appears that Aquaman 2 will get off to a significantly rougher start compared to its predecessor.
There are likely various factors at play for why Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom is facing these underwhelming numbers, ranging from the long wait since the last movie, to being plagued with reshoots and scheduling problems, to the knowledge that it will be the last entry in the DC Extended Universe. Naturally this also means The Lost Kingdom’s chances of surpassing Aquaman, which is still DC highest-grossing movie ever, are slim. However, there is a possible saving grace.
Again, all of the aforementioned numbers concerning The Lost Kingdom concern its domestic release, but let’s not forget that Aquaman crushed globally. According to Box Office Mojo, it only pulled in a little over $330 million domestically, but collected an astounding $816.9 million in international territories, bringing its worldwide total to $1.5 billion. This isn’t to say that Aquaman 2 will do just as well outside of North America as Aquaman did, if not better, but if international audiences are still captivated by the underwater adventures Jason Momoa’s Arthur Curry, then perhaps it can still end up being a commercial success.
We’ll see how Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom box office run ultimately goes once it’s released on December 20. However, for those of you who’d rather look further ahead into the future, I recommend giving our 2024 movies calendar a look-through.
