The weird scheduling of the final week's worth of episodes of Big Brother 16 has left a pretty sizable gap between episodes. It's kind of taken some of the wind out of the momentum building up to the finale. But the finale is nearly upon us and tomorrow night, Big Brother Season 16 will have a winner. Who will it be? We're about to speculate.
SPOILER ALERT: In order to open this up for discussion, we need to reveal two major spoilers from the live feeds. And that's who won Parts 1 & 2 of the final Head of Household. If you don't want to know which two houseguests are moving forward to Part 3, read no further! Because we can't really open this up for discussion without sharing that news.
Before we get to the spoilers, for those who aren't familiar with how the final Head of Household competition works in Big Brother. There are three parts. The first two are pre-taped. The winner of the first part is set to compete in the finale (Part 3). The other two houseguests compete against one another in Part 2. Whoever wins that one competes against Part 1 winner in Part 3. Here's how the competitions went down:
Part 1: Cody won (hang gliding endurance competition).
Part 2: Derrick won (competition happened while the feeds were down, but most likely some kind of timed or race competition involving the order of events this season.)
Part 3: Happens during the finale. Cody and Derrick will face off.
So, that means Victoria is not eligible to win the final Head of Household. Basically, the only way she gets to the end is if Derrick or Cody takes her. The question is, will either one of them do it?
Admittedly, I haven't been watching a ton of feeds in the last few days. It gets quiet and kind of boring by this point each season. From what I've seen, I can tell you that the houseguests have been enjoying take-out, getting some packing done and generally getting along. On the game front, it's hard to say what Cody and Derrick have planned. It seems like they're both planning on taking each other to the end. But there's no way to know if all of this friendliness and assurance from each of them toward the other is just a ploy to convince the other that "it's Final 2 to the end!" in case the other wins the last HoH.
The above said, from some speech-practicing that we saw from Cody while the second HoH competition was happening, it seems like he is planning to take Derrick to the end if he wins Part 3. And I think Derrick might be planning on taking Cody in return, just based on how he's acting. I just can't say for all certainty.
So, who's going to win this thing? Let's take a closer look at each of the remaining houseguests, starting with Derrick...
Derrick
From a viewer's perspective, I think Derrick's the obvious choice. He's been playing the social game all season, with very subtle manipulation worked in. He spent a good portion of the season dropping casual hints and opinions and then stepping back and acting like he's just going along with everyone else's plan. He made himself a non-threat to his own alliance. He made people think they were close with him and could trust him. And I don't think anyone ever felt like they were his target, which is likely the reason he's never once been nominated.
Pretty much everything has gone Derrick's way, including the fact that his closest allies made it to the Final 3 with him. He is the common denominator between Cody and Victoria. That wasn't luck, and if he can make the jurors see that, he should be able to win no matter who is next to him. Of course, the "viewer's perspective" doesn't always apply to the jury. They haven't seen everything we've seen. They only know what they know from their own experience in the game, and what they've shared with one another. With that in mind, Derrick's win isn't a lock, no matter who he takes to the end.
His chances do seem to be a bit better if he were to take Victoria, but only if the jury is voting based entirely on game play. Victoria's existence in the game proved beneficial to some of those jurors at some point before their own eviction. But taking Victoria over Cody might be a step too far for the jurors. So he might take Cody and use the argument that Cody's the one houseguest he was ever truly loyal to. Didn't Andy do something like that with GinaMarie last season?
But can he win? I want to say yes and that there's no doubt. But there's always doubt. If he wins the last Head of Household, he will have made it to the Final 2 without ever being on the block, which is an impressive feat. But he'll need to figure out a way to convince the jurors that he was in control of that -- and a lot of other things that happened this season -- without offending them or making them feel like they got played. Caleb left the house seeming pretty irritated at Derrick, and it's entirely possible the jury house has grown bitter toward Derrick. But if enough of them are willing to credit him for his efforts all season, he should win this.
It's better for Derrick if he wins the last Head of Household -- hopefully he's not considering throwing it -- and it's probably better if he doesn't mention that he's a cop. I can only see that big reveal hurting him if he brings it up before the jury votes are locked in.
Cody
Like with Derrick, I want to believe that taking Victoria would be the obvious path to victory, because I just can't picture most of the jurors voting for Victoria to win over either Cody or Derrick. But it's possible Cody wants to make sure Derrick's with him in the end because they're friends and they have a Final 2. Loyalty does actually happen in this game.
And Cody may think he has this game won no matter who he takes to the end. It's possible he believes he's played the better game than Derrick, and believes the jury will see that too. Before his eviction, Frankie told Caleb that Derrick's playing an impeccable social game. Caleb seemed to dismiss that opinion. But Caleb was fixed on the idea that competition wins matter. I want to say that they don't when it comes to the Final 2, but the truth is, competition wins matter if the jury decides they matter. And it could matter to this jury.
Cody has more competition wins than Derrick, including a few key vetoes. Among them, the Final Four Veto, which allowed him to evict Caleb. That in itself may give him a lot of game credit in the jury's eyes. Not to mention, it seemed like Caleb was much more in favor of Cody than he was Derrick immediately following his eviction. That could change, but I think Cody may have scored himself some big points with that eviction speech, and the jury's going to see that, which may be a problem for Derrick.
But can he win? Factoring in what I just mentioned, yes, I think Cody has a shot at this. More so if he wins the last HoH and brings Derrick than if Derrick wins and brings him. I'm not great at predicting individual votes -- too hard to know what's being discussed and how this jury is settling in since they left the house -- so I won't bother to try to speculate on what each juror might be thinking, but Cody played the all-around likable guy. He wasn't loved by everyone (I don't think Hayden's a fan), but I don't get the sense that there's any major ill-will toward him game-wise. Derrick played the nice guy also, but people might decide to interpret Derrick's manipulation as dirty gameplay (and thusly, his niceness as phony) and reward Cody instead.
Victoria
Victoria needs to be taken to the end to get there. And while a Cody/Derrick Final 2 seems like the predicted outcome, it's entirely possible that one of these guys will decide to play it "safe" and do what they've been doing all season -- keep Victoria and send out the stronger player. As a spectator, I wouldn't fault either of them for doing it if it earns them the win. That's what this game is all about. The question is, does she have any chance of winning if that's the case?
It's really hard to imagine Victoria's jury plea, or even the questions the jurors might ask her. I expect they'd be along the lines of, "Besides being friends with Derrick, what did you do to get to the end" or "What was your strategy?" or maybe just, "Seriously?" Because I can't remember the last time a houseguest has made it so far through the game without really winning anything (technically, she has a Veto that she won because Caleb took a prize, and two Battle of the Block wins she shares with other houseguests) or making any major game moves. She was kept around because she was a non-threat. And the more she didn't win, the more valuable she became in that respect. If she were throwing competitions, I might credit this as a legitimate strategy, but she wasn't. Victoria's only demonstrated bit of strategy was when she turned on the waterworks and faked a falling-out with Derrick. That was impressive and effective, and I kind of wish she'd been playing that way all season.
But can she win? If she makes it to the Final 2, that's entirely in the hands of the jury, and in her case, a win seems largely dependent on whether or not the majority of the jurors want to refuse the other Houseguest the victory. From a game standpoint -- and probably also a social one -- a vote for her is likely as much if not more a vote against whoever's sitting next to her. Socially, her closest ally is Derrick, and I'm not even sure he'd vote for her, even if Cody won Part 3 and evicted him. So yeah, it's possible she could win, but I'm having a hard time picturing it. Then again, it would be an incredibly unpredictable outcome to an otherwise very predictable season, so who knows?
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