Cody Rhodes officially announced he’ll return at The Royal Rumble during a segment on Raw, and there are already fans preparing his victory celebration. And understandably so. His triumph would be the next big step in a long-term story that started with him returning at WrestleMania 38, continued with him vowing to win the WWE Championship his father couldn’t, got sidetracked by a freak injury and could conclude with a one two punch of winning The Rumble and main eventing WrestleMania 39 with a chance to finally secure that title in honor of The American Dream Dusty Rhodes. It gives me goosebumps just thinking about it.
All of that is why, as of right now, I have Cody Rhodes on top of my list of the most likely wrestlers to win the 2023 Royal Rumble. I mean what are the chances he would get injured more than six months ago and his timeline would perfectly line up for a return at The Rumble? It seems like fate, right? Well, not so fast.
Winning The Rumble would be a great next step for Cody Rhodes’ story, but his story isn’t the only one WWE is telling. There are a lot of moving parts to figure out, and while I think Rhodes winning is the most likely single outcome, I think there’s a well under fifty percent chance it actually happens. Let’s talk about why. Here are the biggest reasons Cody Rhodes will probably lose The 2023 Royal Rumble…
Roman Reigns’ Story Has Nothing To Do With Cody Rhodes
When you win The Royal Rumble, you get to face the WWE Champion at WrestleMania. Barring a truly shocking decision, that champion is going to be Roman Reigns, who has interacted very little with Cody Rhodes since The American Nightmare’s original return.
With all due respect to Cody Rhodes who is all kinds of over with fans and is a delight to watch, he’s not the biggest thing in wrestling right now. That honor belongs to Roman Reigns and The Bloodline. Reigns, alongside The Usos, Solo Sikoa and Sami Zayn have been at the epicenter of the biggest WWE storylines over the last year, and it feels like WrestleMania is the perfect time to pay those off. Maybe that’s with Sami Zayn. Maybe that’s with Kevin Owens, who has been a frequent thorn in the team’s side or maybe that’s with Reigns’ cousin The Rock, who may emerge to argue he’s the real head of the table.
Cody Rhodes would be able to offer a tremendous high stakes wrestling match with another superstar who is very over with the crowd, but WWE writers would need to scramble for the next few months to properly build the match so there is specific animosity between the two fighters. They could do that, and I’m sure it would be terrific in the end, but is that really the best option for Roman Reigns’ character right now? I love Cody. Winning could be the best option for his character, but if finishing the Bloodline storyline is what WWE wants to do at WrestleMania, that is going to take priority.
Cody Rhodes’ Goals Have Nothing To Do With Roman Reigns
So, let’s flip this around for a second. Obviously Roman Reigns’ storyline has nothing to do with Cody Rhodes, which factors into WWE’s decision-making, but the same could also be said for Cody Rhodes. His goal is to win the WWE Championship. That singular drive is what is pushing his character forward. Yes, I suppose it’s a little more meaningful if he beats Roman Reigns since he’s the multi-year unbeatable big boss, but in general, I think the crowd pop he should receive if/ when he finally hoists that title is going to be basically the same whether he beats Roman or Drew McIntyre or Bobby Lashley or a prime Bob Backlund.
The goal of wrestling is to tell as many great stories as you can. Right now, Cody Rhodes’ story is about a childhood dream of winning the big belt. What matters is the ultimate conquest, that’s where the emotional payoff is going to come from. The emotional payoff isn’t specifically going to come from beating Roman Reigns—- and since Roman Reigns hasn’t been beaten in years, it seems like WWE could give that payoff to someone else, someone who has directly been involved in long-term storylines with him and give Cody his victory over whoever beats Roman. Then suddenly you end up with two huge moments instead of one.
Losing Might Be The Best Thing For His Character Development
Cody Rhodes has quite the history of losses, embarrassments, bad gimmicks, rotten storylines and overall frustrations with WWE. Older, long-term fans are certainly fully aware of how much heartbreak he has had to endure, but it’s now been almost seven years since he left WWE originally. In the time since he’s been back, he’s had basically nothing but forward momentum, at least until his injury. Would it be the worst thing in the world to give his character another taste of heartbreak before building him back up?
Yes, the fairy tale next step would be for him to return and win The Rumble. But does that sound like Cody Rhodes to you? The Cody we all know and love has repeatedly taken steps forward and backward in his career, and I kind of like the idea of him ending up in the final four at The Rumble and getting his dream ruined in heartbreaking fashion. He only had 8 televised matches after he came back, all victories. That's not an overcoming the odds story, at least if you only look at the last year.
If he lost The Rumble, he could spend six months or so building himself back up and gaining momentum before finally getting his shot at SummerSlam or Survivor Series or maybe he could win The Rumble next year? That would make his win a lot more meaningful to more recent fans, and besides, sometimes delayed gratification is a lot more satisfying.
Cody Winning Might Feel Too Obvious To The Writers
You don’t like to think about wrestling writers taking the expectations of fans into account and intentionally subverting those expectations, but smarks have been saying for six months that Cody Rhodes was almost certainly going to win The Rumble. There is almost an expectation he will, and while current WWE isn’t exactly late WCW that was obsessed with swerves, I’m sure there is a desire among many to keep the audience guessing. I was at The ‘22 Royal Rumble last year, and not only was everyone expecting Brock Lesnar to come out, the second his music hit, everyone knew exactly what the finish was going to be.
Sometimes the obvious outcome is inevitable. For example, there was no way Cody Rhodes was going to come back at WrestleMania to all that fanfare and immediately lose to Seth Rollins. The alternative path, in that case, just didn’t make any sense, but that is not the case here. Cody Rhodes might be the most obvious choice, but there are so many other logical paths WWE could go down. So, if the writers feel like subverting expectations, they have multiple choices that will feel like the next logical step for other characters.
To Sum Up
I think Cody Rhodes is the biggest threat to win The 2023 Royal Rumble, provided nothing changes over the next two weeks. He has an incredibly strong case, and fans would go crazy after having not seen him in months. But he is not the only option, and if you think he’s destined to win, you might be in for a rough Saturday.
Sami Zayn, The Rock, Jey Uso, Kevin Owens and more all have storylines that could culminate at WrestleMania. Wrestlers like Seth Rollins and Gunther are extremely hot right now and could be in line for a big push. We might see other huge returns. WWE has a ton of options here, and that’s why, even if I’d make him the favorite, there’s a better chance Cody Rhodes is going to lose this Rumble.
The Royal Rumble is the next WWE Premium Live Event, and it airs on Saturday January 28th. You can watch it free with a Peacock subscription.
