The Royal Rumble is just a few weeks away, and I am fired up. With all due respect to WrestleMania, the Rumble is the most exciting night of the year for me as a wrestling fan, and it’s particularly exciting this year because I have no idea what is going to happen. Both the men’s and women’s Rumbles are wide open, and you could make a compelling case for why a bunch of big names should win. I have some theories about what’s going to happen with the ladies, but the more I think about the gentlemen, the more confused I get. CM Punk, John Cena and Roman Reigns are at the top of many people’s predictions, but there are also really obvious reasons why they each should lose.
Now, to be clear, CM Punk, John Cena and Roman Reigns are all more than deserving of winning this year’s Rumble for various reasons. Each one of them is famous enough and over with the crowd enough to main event WrestleMania, and there’s actually a good chance all three of them could end up main eventing ‘Mania this year. But each one has a glaring red flag that makes it uniquely problematic for them to win the Rumble. So, let’s talk them out.
John Cena is the pick for a lot of people this year, as fans really want to see him win big. He’s already announced it’s going to be his last Rumble, and whatever he does at his final WrestleMania is going to be a huge deal. He also cut a promo during the first Raw on Netflix saying he’s entering the Rumble, and most fans, myself included, are of the opinion that he’ll be in some kind of title match at ‘Mania. All of that points to him winning the Rumble, and that's certainly how the betting market feels. I’m not so sure about that though.
Most of WWE’s advertisements for Elimination Chamber have been very John Cena forward. He’s in the most prominent spot in the main poster, and there’s a variant poster saying it’s his last time in Toronto. That all points to him being in the Elimination Chamber, which he wouldn’t need to do if he wins the Rumble. In addition, while winning the Rumble would be a really fun moment, the better story would be him losing the Rumble and then spending the next month ahead of Elimination Chamber talking about how he has to win Elimination Chamber to get one more shot at a championship. He’s done nothing but take losses each time he’s returned from Hollywood, and many of his promos have been about self-doubt. The better story here is he loses again but gets close enough to start believing in himself.
A lot of other people are all-in on CM Punk winning the Rumble. He’s made no secret about wanting to main event WrestleMania. It’s been brought up numerous times on WWE television, and given he got injured and finished second at the Rumble last year, the story practically writes itself. He can win, challenge Cody Rhodes and finally walk to the main event. Sounds great, right? Well, I’m not so sure about that one either because of a loose end WWE hasn’t tied up yet.
Back when CM Punk joined the OG Bloodline Team at Survivor Series, WWE made several references to the fact that Roman Reigns’ manager Paul Heyman now owes CM Punk a big favor down the road. It wasn’t said off-handedly. It was very clearly a major thing that was hammered into the audience that’s meant to come up later. The thing is, if CM Punk wins the Rumble and challenges Gunther or Cody Rhodes at ‘Mania, there’s no point in Paul Heyman or Roman being involved. I suppose we could get back to that after ‘Mania season, but that’s a really long time to sit on something, even for Triple H. Instead, what I think is more likely is Punk loses the Rumble and then ends up fighting Roman at ‘Mania with this favor thing looming over everyone’s heads.
That brings us to Roman. With all due respect to Cody Rhodes, he’s clearly the biggest attraction in WWE that’s not a returning movie star. He’s already declared for the Rumble, and it seems likely Triple H, Bruce Prichard and company are going to want to stick a belt on him sooner rather than later. Having him win the Rumble would also likely be particularly meaningful to Roman himself, as he was booed loudly and without mercy by disappointed fans unhappy with his Rumble victory in ‘15. He would get a much better reception this time around, as he’s currently getting the loudest babyface pops of his career.
But his manager Paul Heyman has already implied he’ll be challenging Cody Rhodes at WrestleMania if he wins the Rumble, and while the dynamic between the two would feel very different than it did at the last two ‘Manias, I’m not sure people are really clamoring for those two to main event three consecutive WrestleManias. That’s way too much of the same, even if the promos and the story would likely be different this time around. So, as white hot as Roman is right now, I just don’t see a victory here as the outcome fans really want.
All three of these superstars could still win the Rumble. I’m definitely not trying to say they should be eliminated from consideration, but these obvious issues I’ve outlined are why this could potentially be a good year for someone less obvious to step up.
Drew McIntyre is doing the best work of his entire career, and there have been a lot of rumors about WWE wanting to give him a huge push this year. Most people think The Rock isn’t going to work ‘Mania this year, but if he were to enter the Rumble, there’s a very strong chance he could win. He’ll certainly main event ‘Mania if he works it. Seth Rollins has arguably been WWE’s most consistent performer over the last several years, and after taking losses in a bunch of key spots, it might be time for WWE to reward him on a really big stage. Jey Uso has been selling more merchandise than anyone else in the company, and his ring entrances are the hottest in the game. Brock Lesnar is probably going to come back at some point, and when he does, he’ll be an immediate threat to win everything. All of these alternate options are possibilities.
Maybe, despite the red flags, one of the favorites still wins. Maybe WWE surprises us and goes with a less conventional choice. I have no idea what’s going to happen, and it’s why I’m more excited for this Rumble than I’ve been in a long time.
